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Sunny and increasingly warm weather through mid week

After a chilly start with temperatures in the upper 30s this morning, Monday will bring another gorgeous spring day to east-central Ohio with plenty of bright sunshine. Temperatures this afternoon will top out at around 69/71 degrees across the Tuscarawas Valley.

04-24-ndfd-day1-max-temps

Temperatures tonight will not be nearly as chilly tonight. Winds will shift around to the southeast this evening and clouds will increase tonight The warmer southerly flow and more clouds will help hold in some of the daytime heating overnight. Most neighborhoods should only cool off to around 50 degrees by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday we’ll be sandwiched between two low pressure systems resulting in a dry but cloudier day than today.

04-24-gfs-36hr-ptype

Still, temperatures will continue an uphill climb to the low to mid 70s tomorrow afternoon.

As winds turn more southerly on Wednesday and a ridge of high pressure builds over the region, the sun will return in earnest on Wednesday. Temperatures across the Valley will be off to the races and most of us will see afternoon highs in the low 80s.

THURSDAY BRINGS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to east-central Ohio on Thursday as low pressure and an associated cold front approach the Great Lakes region.

04-24-gfs-78hr-ptype

Although timing remains an issue this far out, recent model runs have slowed this system up and I think Thursday will start out as another decent day. But, showers and storms will move in at some point during the afternoon.

Timing will also have an impact on the potential for strong to severe storms. Temperatures will certainly be warm enough during the day to support strong storms should the timing work out just right. We will need to keep an eye on this in future model runs as the week progresses.

After uneventful weather on Friday, computer models are having a difficult time with a solution regarding a large deepening trough in the west as it advances eastward late in the week. Until all this gets sorted out, we can probably count on a period of showers and thunderstorms as we head into the weekend.

Today’s guidance suggests the best opportunity for rain and thunder would be Friday night into Saturday with a warm front lifting through east-central Ohio. Then, isolated to scattered showers and storms on Sunday in the warm and humid air mass. Thunderstorm possibilities and strength would depend on timing which is something that hasn’t been worked out yet.

For the 7-Day, I’ll just include chances for showers and storms for now until things start firming up in regards to timing and strength.

With an unsettled weather pattern over the weekend, we’ll need to monitor next Monday as a cold front swings through. Again, depending on timing, it could bring another round of robust thunderstorms.

 

 

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Saturday morning update: Majority of any rain should remain south of the Valley today

Low pressure will track east across the Tennessee Valley today. Computer models have consistently shifted this feature further south reducing the chances for any showers here in the Tuscarawas Valley.

Although it will not be quite as warm today, I do think the majority of any rain should stay south of New Phila with just a low chance of a light shower or drizzle at some point this afternoon. Those communities south of New Phila will be more likely to end up with a spritz or drizzle.

FutureCast radar for today:

04-22-hrrr_2017042211_ref_cleveland

Clouds will wind the day and temperatures will be on the cool side with highs generally in the mid to upper 50s across the region.

04-22-ndfd-day1-temps

Sunday will be a much nicer day, so if you can hold off on those outdoor tasks and activities tomorrow will be a much better day. Sunshine with passing clouds will dominate and allow temperatures to recover back to the mid 60s in the afternoon.

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Cooler weekend temperatures; Temperatures steadily rise through next week

As I suspected, yesterday’s thunderstorms weakened as they traveled east and did not make much of a local impact here in the Tuscarawas Valley. We did have one severe thunderstorm warning issued for western Guernsey and central Muskingum counties as a strong cell produced 60 mph winds as it moved through Zanesville at around 7:30 last evening.

Another strong cell in Coshocton at around 6:30 pm produced gusty 45 mph winds and heavy rain but it managed to stay below severe criteria.

Also, not much rain fell in our local area. All backyard weather stations locally only chalked up a few hundredths of an inch. More rain fell in those areas that managed to get a thunderstorm.

04-21-24hr-rainfall

Our cold front crossed this morning and it will continue to scoot east of the region through the rest of today. Weak high pressure will visit east-central Ohio to bring a mix of clouds and sunshine. Temperatures will be a bit cooler this afternoon than they were yesterday and will be closer to where we should be at this time of the year.

04-21-ndfd-day1-max-temps

We’ll remain dry and cool overnight with temperatures dropping to the low 40s by early Saturday morning.

WEEKEND WEATHER
First, some good news – it will be a dryer weekend than I thought in previous forecasts. Today’s model runs has shifted low pressure crossing Ohio on Saturday further south which will keep our chances for rain on the low end of the scale.

While there still may be a spritz or light shower tomorrow afternoon, I think most neighborhoods stay dry. Chances for rain will be greater along and south of I-70.

04-21-gfs-36hr-ptype

Hi-res NAM (North American Model) guidance shows that the majority of precipitation stays south of the Valley through Saturday evening.

04-21-nam-39hr-precip

Temperatures, however, will be on the chilly side for this time of the year. Afternoon highs won’t do much better than the mid to upper 50s under intervals of sunshine.

Should the model trends continue to shift the low further south I may be able to reduce or even remove rain chances in future forecast updates. But for now, I’ll just go with a 30-percent chance in the 7-Day.

Sunday will be the pick day for the weekend as the low to our south continues on its southeast track and out of the region. Sunshine will break out with just enough clouds to make a gorgeous sky. Temperatures will also recover back to around 65 in the afternoon.

NEXT WEEK
The new work week starts out with abundant sunshine on Monday with temperatures continuing to warm back to the upper 60s. Tuesday will bring a few more clouds into the picture, but still a very pleasant spring day. Temperatures should top out in the low 70s in most neighborhoods.

A weak trough of low pressure looks to bring back the chances for showers by mid week. There is some disagreement between models as to the timing and strength of this next system. For now, I’ve kept a low chance for showers Wednesday and Thursday until guidance gets their act together.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS
Temperatures will trend in the right direction after this weekend with a steady climb all through next week. I wouldn’t be all that shocked to see low 80s by next weekend.

04-21-ecmwf-15day-temps

Have a great (and safe) weekend!

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9:30 PM Severe weather update: Storms will weaken as they travel east tonight

Now that the sun has set, the threat for any severe thunderstorms is pretty much over here in the Valley. The last line of thunderstorms to our west will run into a more stable atmosphere and weaken as they make their way here.

04-20-930p-tusc-radar

I would expect showers and probably a few rumbles from this next line, but for all intents and purposes, severe thunderstorms will be unlikely. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has lowered our risk for any severe storms to the “Marginal Risk” category.

04-20-spc-day1-outlook3

Thanks for relying on TuscWeather.net for your local weather updates. Have a great night.

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Thursday afternoon severe weather update

I hope everyone is enjoying the nice summerlike day across east-central Ohio. At 2:00 pm, we have a mix of sun and clouds across the Tuscarawas Valley and temperatures generally around 80 degrees. We may tack on a couple of more degrees before the afternoon wanes towards evening.

04-20-230-temps

Nothing locally is showing up on radar at this time, but we do have some thunderstorms firing up in northern Indiana along our cold front. These will continue to intensify and travel southeast and into northwestern Ohio later on in the afternoon. With the atmosphere becoming increasingly unstable there and the potential for thunderstorms to intensify, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH until 8:00 pm for portions of western and central Ohio.

14-20-230p-tusc-radar

Notice that the Watch area does NOT include east-central Ohio at this time. We will continue to monitor the Storm Prediction Center and our local NWS offices for future updates.

In their latest discussion, the SPC indicates that isolated strong / locally severe thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon across eastern Ohio. At this time, a Watch is not likely for our area, BUT the SPC will continue to monitor the situation and may issue an update later today.

04-20-mcd0526

HOWEVER, an increase in thunderstorm development is expected across east-central Ohio late this afternoon and continuing into the evening. Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms with gusty wind and hail remain likely to occur. Just because a Watch is not anticipated in the short term does not mean strong to severe storms will not develop.

Portions of east-central Ohio – including the Tuscarawas valley – remain in the ‘slight risk’ category for severe thunderstorms.

04-20-spc-day1-outlook

A renegade thunderstorm is possible just about any time and any place this afternoon into the early evening. Our best window of opportunity for strong to severe storms will arrive this evening in the 7:00 to 9:00 PM time frame.Peak daytime heating and waning instability during that time will likely weaken thunderstorms as they travel southeast and into our area. Some could still pack a punch, though, so remain aware this afternoon and especially this evening.

Peak daytime heating will have already occurred and instability will be settling down during that time. With less heat and waning instability thunderstorms will likely weaken as they travel southeast and into our area. Some could still pack a punch, though, so remain aware this afternoon and especially this evening.

Hi-res Futurecast radar this afternoon through 7:00 am Friday:

04-20-hrrr_2017042017_ref_cleveland

SEVERE THREAT LEVELS
As mentioned earlier, the primary severe threat for our area will be damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. Moderate to large hail is also a threat, although it is a bit lower.

04-20-tuscrisk2

Some of these storms will also be capable of heavy rainfall but they should move through fairly quickly keeping the risk for flooding low. However, localized street and backyard flooding remain a possibility in the strongest thunderstorms.

I’ll post another update later this evening should anything change. Otherwise, remain weather aware and have a reliable way to receive any warnings late this afternoon and evening. Outdoor tornado sirens are NOT RECOMMENDED as a primary warning method.

JE

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Thursday’s severe weather update

WEATHER HAZARD: Warm and humid conditions are expected today ahead of a strong cold front that will bring showers and thunderstorms to east-central Ohio late this afternoon through this evening. There is a threat for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon through this evening. Damaging wind gusts of 58 mph or greater is the primary threat. Large hail is also possible in the strongest thunderstorm cells.

Good morning!

The weak cold front that brought showers and a few thunderstorms across mainly the northern portion of Tuscarawas County last evening remained fairly stationary overnight and is still hanging around just to our north this morning. This boundary will begin to lift north by mid morning as a warm front putting the east-central Ohio region solidly in the warm sector this afternoon. With a strong southerly flow setting up, warm and humid conditions will replace this morning’s tranquil air mass.

Temperatures this afternoon across the region will soar to the low 80s today. And with dew points already in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees it’s going to feel more like early July with summerlike warmth and humidity.

04-20-ndfd-day1-temps

With a warm, humid, and unstable atmosphere in place this afternoon, the only thing missing for thunderstorms to get going today is a trigger mechanism. That trigger is off to our west this morning in the form of a strong cold front. As the cold front travels east and into western Ohio showers and thunderstorms will move east ahead and along the front.

04-20-gfs-12hr-ptype

Although the day looks to remain mostly dry across the region, a few random showers and/or thunderstorms may pop up just about anywhere today. The chances are pretty low that anyone spot gets wet, but a popup shower or storm can’t be completely ruled out. If you work or have outdoor activities planned today you’ll need to watch for one of these renegade showers or storms.

Our focus for severe weather will be later this evening and tonight and quite frankly, the odds don’t look all that promising for severe thunderstorms here in east-central Ohio and the Tuscarawas Valley area. The main reason is timing – storms will arrive after peak daytime heating and peak instability.

Although a strong to severe thunderstorm tonight can’t be completely ruled out, the morning Storm Prediction Center Outlook clearly indicates that the best chances for severe thunderstorms will occur earlier in the afternoon and in northwestern portions of Ohio.

04-20-spc-day1-outlook

I don’t want to discount that there is a threat for severe thunderstorms here later this evening, but both of our high-resolution models do show a definite weakening of thunderstorms this evening as they approach our area.

Here is how the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model ‘thinks’ things will play out through 2:00 am Friday:

04-20-hrrr_2017042012_ref_cleveland

SEVERE THREATS
Should this evening’s storms maintain themselves as they approach and cross east-central Ohio this evening, the largest threat will come from damaging wind gusts. Hail is also a possibility, although it will be less of a threat.

04-20-tuscrisk

TIMING
Exact timing is difficult to nail down early this morning yet. Some modeling has slowed up the advancing cold front a bit but I’m not one-hundred percent sold on that idea this early in the game. We have a lot of day left and things will likely change somewhat. The amount of sunshine we manage to end up getting today will also be a factor – the more sun, the greater amount of instability and the longer that instability will persist into the evening.

That being said, I think the threat for strong/severe thunderstorms here in the Valley will be highest after 5:00 pm this afternoon and continue through to around 8 or 9 pm this evening.

AFTER THE STORMS
Showers and thunderstorms will wind down after midnight and our cold front crosses early Friday morning. Cooler and dryer air will rush in behind the front on Friday knocking our temperatures back to around average.

04-20-ndfd-day2-temps

Yea. It’ll be a big change from today’s 80s. But, high pressure will bring a mostly sunny day tomorrow.

WEEKEND? NOT SO NICE
Saturday will be downright chilly with plenty of cloudiness around. An afternoon shower will also be possible. Don’t expect temperatures to do much better than the mid 50s in the afternoon.

Sunday will end up being a little warmer, but not by much – low 60s at best. It also looks a bit less cloudy, so maybe some peaks of sun in the afternoon. Still, a spotty shower or two may spoil things for us.

STAY WITH US FOR UPDATES As I mentioned earlier, the threat for severe thunderstorms later today is less in the Valley. It is not zero. There are still some issues that need to be worked out as the day progresses and those issues will determine if severe storms manage to affect us here in east-central Ohio. There will be changes as more information comes in and the severe threat comes into better focus. Be prepared, not scared.

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SPC upgrades portions of our area to ‘Slight Risk’ category for severe thunderstorms late day Thursday

Folks around the Tuscarawas Valley and surrounding region will need to pay attention to the weather Thursday afternoon and evening for the potential for severe thunderstorms.

In today’s afternoon update, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of our area to the “Slight Risk” category.

04-19-spc-day2-outlook2

I’ll note that the term “Slight” does not mean ‘slightly severe’ or that there is a ‘slight chance for severe thunderstorms. It’s best to remember that “Slight Risk” is actually a ’2′ on the five-point risk scale used by the SPC.

04-19-spc-categories

The primary threats with late day storms tomorrow will be damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in any strong thunderstorms tomorrow.

WHAT DOES ‘SEVERE’ THUNDERSTORM MEAN?
Many folks are unaware that the amount of lightning has nothing to do with whether a storm is severe or not. The reason being that ALL thunderstorms contain lightning by definition.

In order to be severe, a thunderstorm must meet any one of the following criteria:

04-19-tstorm-classes

Thunderstorms are expected later today, but the risk for severe thunderstorms today is quite low. See today’s blog for more details about today’s weather.

Remain weather aware later this evening and especially tomorrow afternoon. We’ll have all the latest information – including a complete timeline and breakdown of what we can expect – later tonight and first thing Thursday morning right here on TuscWeather.net.

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Strong thunderstorms possible across east-central Ohio this evening and Thursday

After a nearly perfect spring day yesterday in east-central Ohio, our weather turns more active for Wednesday and Thursday as a series of systems bring showers and thunderstorms to the region.

TODAY
A warm front is lifting through Ohio this morning and that’s been responsible for generating a few spotty showers. These will remain isolated through the rest of the day and I think, for the most part, we have better chances of staying dry here in the Tuscarawas Valley. The clouds will stay and it may look like rain at times, but most should stay dry.

Our focus turns to later this afternoon and evening as low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes lifting a warm front across Ohio. Temperatures today will warm to the mid 70s this afternoon across the Tuscarawas Valley and it will begin to turn humid this afternoon.

04-19-ndfd-day1-max-temps

As the low continues east this afternoon it will drag a weak cold front across northeast Ohio generating showers and storms along the boundary. There is some model discrepancy yet this morning on exactly how far south in Ohio the boundary travels before it stalls. This is important because showers and thunderstorms are likely along the boundary and knowing how far south this gets will determine how far south thunderstorms will reach late today.

Both of the short term high-resolution models are handling things well depicting the morning weather. They disagree on where and when storms get going later this afternoon, though. That makes it difficult to nail down any timing for storms later today.

For now, figure on the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms at some point late this afternoon into this evening. Here is the idea from the HRRR model for today through

04-19-hrrr_2017041911_ref_cleveland

The threat for any severe thunderstorms here in the Valley is pretty low. That’s mainly due to the timing of the storms – they’ll arrive here late enough in the day when instability will be less. The Storm Prediction Center does have all of east-central Ohio in the low “Marginal Risk” category.

04-19-spc-day1-outlook

Any of the stronger storms this afternoon and evening will be capable of generating gusty winds as well as small to moderate hail.

Heavy rainfall is also a good possibility overnight tonight. Some minor flooding could result should rainfall approach an inch or so in some areas.

BIG CAVEAT: Timing remains an issue with today’s storms. Depending on when they manage to arrive will be a big factor in how strong storms will be. IF they arrive in mid or late afternoon, there’s a bigger potential for stronger storms here in the Valley. If they arrive late this evening the threat for strong storms will be less – not zero, but less. The forecast is likely to change as we get more information.

Area risk assessment mainly for late this afternoon and tonight:

04-19-tuscrisk

A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COMES ON THURSDAY
Remember that cold front that gets hung up somewhere over northeast Ohio today? It’s going to shift gears and head back north as a warm front tomorrow. That’s going to allow for some very warm and very moist southern air to migrate into east-central Ohio on Thursday.

Temperatures tomorrow will soar to the upper 70s – maybe even low 80s. And, it will become noticeably humid – summerlike actually.

04-19-ndfd-day2-max-temps

With this very warm, humid and unstable atmosphere firmly in place tomorrow afternoon, a strong cold front will approach from the northwest. Cold dry air running into warm moist air will provide the trigger for strong to severe thunderstorms again late in the day Thursday.

As it is with today, timing will be a big concern. The later storms make their way into the Valley, the less potent they will be. As of this morning, all indications are that it will be late in the day when storms arrive here in the Tuscarawas Valley.

04-19-nam-42hr-sim-radar

Since this line of storms looks to arrive more towards sunset they should loose some of their punch. Still, the threat will be there for damaging winds, moderate to large hail, and even a small risk for an isolated tornado. As such, the SPC has a greater risk for severe thunderstorms in northwest Ohio than here. BUT again, timing will be crutial, so keep up with the forecast again tomorrow.

04-19-spc-day2-outlook

Storms should exit southeast of the region Thursday night into the wee hours of Friday morning with a few residual showers lagging behind.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
The air behind the cold front will be much much colder and temperatures on Friday will drop back to about average 9 63-65 degrees. Saturday will be even chillier with highs struggling to make the upper 50s.

NOTE: The thunderstorm forecast today and Thursday will undergo changes as more data comes in and forecasting tools get a better handle on things. Stay tuned to later updates.

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A perfect spring day

Tuesday’s weather will be pretty much the perfect example of a spring day across the Tuscarawas Valley. Temperatures should top out in the low 70s this afternoon with just a smattering of clouds here and there to add some depth to the blue sky.

04-18-ndfd-day1-temps

A little southerly component to the flow today will only add to the sheer pleasantness of the day.

Temperatures tonight will be much warmer than last night across the Valley due to the southerly flow and increasing cloud cover. Most neighborhoods should stay in the mid 50s overnight.

Our next weather system – a warm front – will cross the upper Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Tomorrow will be a much cloudier day although temperatures will remain warmer than average. It will also turn noticeably humid as warm moist air moves in from the south.

Temperatures on Wednesday will again top out in the low to mid 70s but with those higher dew points it’ll feel a bit warmer. A renegade shower or two at some point tomorrow will be possible but the day won’t be a washout by any means.

A better chance for rain and some thunder will come on Thursday with a strong cold front. With cold dry air running into the warm and humid air mass that will be in place over east-central Ohio we can expect a few thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Although severe thunderstorms are not expected at this point, a few storms might get a little feisty according to the Storm Prediction Center. Strong gusty winds and hail are the primary threats from Thursday thunderstorms.

04-18-spc-day3-outlook

The limiting factor will be cloud cover. Should we happen to get enough sun, instability would increase enough to warrant a better chance of storms becoming severe.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Thursday evening and clear out overnight. Friday will bring a mix of sun and clouds but temperatures on Friday will be much cooler behind that strong cold front. Most neighborhoods Friday afternoon will be lucky to make it to 60 degrees.

Cooler temperatures and occasional rain chances will continue through the weekend. Generally, temperatures Saturday and Sunday look to remain in the 60 degree range for highs and nighttime lows in the mid/upper 40s. A spotty shower or two will be possible on Saturday with rain a pretty good bet on Sunday.

LONGER RANGE

Cooler temperatures are forecast through the majority of next week before things warm up for next weekend.

04-18-ecmwf-15day-temps

JE

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Sunny skies and mild temperatures through Tuesday; Rain and storm chances increase mid week

I hope everyone enjoyed some of the very pleasant weather here in the Valley over the Easter Weekend and had a great Easter. Except fot the spotty rain showers and thunder yesterday, the majority of the weekend turned out warm and dry.

The dry weather will continue today and Tuesday as high pressure takes control to bring a couple of mostly sunny days. Although temperatures will be just a little cooler behind last evening’s cold front, we will still have very pleasant afternoon temperatures today. Most neighborhoods around the Tuscarawas Valley will see temperatures right around 70 degrees.

04-17-ndfd-day1-max-temps

We’ll cool off to the mid 40s overnight but remain dry. Then, do it all over again on Tuesday with plenty of sunshine and afternoon temperatures reaching the 72 – 74 degree range.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
Our weather will turn more active as we approach mid week with a series of weather systems that will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.

The first weather maker, a weak cold front, will approach east-central Ohio Tuesday night. Current model guidance suggests we should stay mainly dry for the majority of the night, but I will introduce a slight chance for a shower early Wednesday morning. Shower and thunderstorm probabilities will gradually increase as we go through the day Wednesday, but showers and storms will be scattered at best.

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With a limited amount of moisture available with this system I don’t think it will be a wash out and most of the day should be dry, although cloudy. Deeper

Deeper low pressure crossing on Thursday will offer us more moisture and a much better probability of getting wet. This one has the potential to bring widespread rain along with a thunderstorm or two.

04-17-gfs-84hr-ptype

Neither of these two systems will be potent enough to bring any severe thunderstorms to east-central Ohio but I’ll continue to monitor Thursday’s low as this one will be the stronger of the two systems.

Total precipitation expected here in the Valley through the period today through Friday morning will generally run about one-half to three-quarters of an inch – depending on Thursday’s thunderstorms.

04-17-wpc-96hr-precip

Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will stay warm despite the clouds and rain chances. Look for low 70s on Wednesday followed by mid 70s on Thursday.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND
A cold front sweeps across the region Thursday night that will knock temperatures back about ten degrees Friday. Those cooler 60-ish temperatures look to hang in there through the weekend.

High pressure will try to build back on Friday and that should bring us a mix of sun and clouds as well as returning dry weather to the region.Although there are differences in modeling this far out, high pressure may keep dry air and more sun going through Saturday. Our next low pressure system approaches Saturday night spreading moisture once again back into east-central Ohio on Sunday.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side – mostly in the 60s through mid week before trending upward toward the 70 degree mark as we enter next weekend.

04-17-ecmwf-15day-temps

Longer range outlooks call for about average temperatures for the latter part of April.

04-17-noaa-814day-temps

Precipitation for the same period looks to be around average to slightly above average.

04-17-noaa-814day-precip

JE

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