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A couple of rainy and thundery days; Showers and storms return for the holiday weekend

Showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms will return to east-central Ohio today as a deepening low pressure system meanders across the region. As weak disturbances ride along with this system, scattered showers will develop and through the rest of the morning. Clouds may thin at times betweem these weak disturbances allowing for a few scattered peaks of sun during the day.


As the system begins to take a northerly run to the Great Lakes region this afternoon and evening, clouds will thicken up and showers will become more widespread.

Eighteen hour FutureCast radar (through 1:00 am Thursday):


Clouds and the potential for spotty sunshine will make temperatures a bit tricky to forecast today. The majority of guidance keeps afternoon highs just below 70 degrees generally but any extended length of sun would push temperatures a bit higher than that. I’ll go conservative and keep afternoon highs in the upper 60s.

Any thunderstorms today should stay below severe criteria but strong thunderstorms can be expected just to our south later today.


As the low meanders around the region we can expect much of the same on Thursday with showers and the occasional rumble of thunder through much of the day. Much like today, I don’t expect rain all day but showers and storms will occasionally visit.


By Friday our low will finally shoft into New England and allow for some drier air to work in over east-central Ohio. There may be some leftover showers to start on Friday but clouds should begin to thin out in the afternoon and allow for some sun to peak.


With the added sun, temperatures on Friday should warm to around the mid 70s.

This system will bring us some decent rain today through Friday. Most neighborhoods will end up with about a half to one-inch of rain through the period.


Unfortunately, Friday’s dry and somewhat sunny weather will be short-lived. While there are differences in modeling this far out, it appears that another strengthening low pressure system will bring active and generally wet weather over the holiday weekend.

The better chances for showers and thunderstorms still appears to be Saturday and Sunday before low pressure moves off to the north on Memorial Day. In today’s forecast, I’ll keep likely showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with reduced chances for rain for Monday.

River levels are expected to rise a bit through Friday in response to precipitation today and Thursday. Levels will, however, remain well below flood stage.



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NWS Climate Prediction Center: Warmer than average summer for east-central Ohio

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.s latest summer outlook for the US is forecasting warmer than average temperatures for east-central Ohio.

The summer forecast includes meteorological summer – the months of June, July, and August. It also states that temperatures are likely to be a little warmer than an average OVERALL for those three months.


As for summer precipitation, the CPC indicates no definitive signal for anything other than average amounts of precipitation through the same period.


The Climate Prediction Center is a part of the National Weather Service and NOAA. The CPC delivers real-time products and information that predict and describe climate variations on timescales from weeks to years thereby promoting effective management of climate risk and a climate-resilient society.

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A couple of nice days ahead before rain chances move back in mid week

A cold front continues moving east this morning and high pressure will build allowing for drier air to settle in over the region.


Today will bring a mix of sun and clouds along with afternoon temperatures cooler than average for this time of the year. Most neighborhoods around the Tuscarawas Valley should see temperatures around 70 today.


High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Tuesday, so we can expect another nice spring day with afternoon temperatures near the mid 70s.

This morning’s guidance shows low pressure tracking across the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. The models track this system differently but basically all keep it across western Ohio by Wednesday evening crossing Lake Erie on Thursday. With this idea, I think we will stay dry through Tuesday night but rain chances will slowly ramp up through the day on Wednesday with widespread rain becoming likely by Wednesday evening.


Fairly steady rainfall can be expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning with rain tapering off and becoming more showery Thuresday midday.

Temperatures Wednesday should top out in the low 70s but cooler air behind the storm system will bring a cool Thursday with afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s.

High pressure returns briefly on Friday as our storm system pushes off to the east taking the rain and showery weather with it. Temperatures should recover somewhat under mostly sunny skies with most areas in the low 70s.


While still a way out for specific details, the upcoming holiday weekend is shaping up to be wet and active. A series of disturbances will move through east-central Ohio on Saturday keeping at least a low chance for showers through the day.

A warm front lifts across Ohio Saturday night into Sunday as strengthening low pressure travels into the Great Lakes region. Rain will become likely through Sunday with this feature.

The only positive aspects we can take with this will be warmer temperatures Saturday and Sunday with highs in the upper 70s. Showery weather will remain possible on Memorial Day.


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A few showers and storms possible today and remain through the weekend

A cold front north of the Tuscarawas Valley will continue dropping south today eventually becoming hung up near the Ohio River this afternoon. The front will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon for those areas south of I-70.

Here in the Valley, we will need to keep a chance for scattered showers and thunder as the front progresses south this morning. The threat for strong or severe thunderstorms is pretty low here but it does tick upward along and south of I-70. Since weather doesn’t pay much attention to geographical borders, we will need to keep the possibility for a strong storm in the forecast late in the day through the evening.



Here is a look how the hi-res short-term model THINKS the radar might look like through 2:00 am Saturday:


Barring any rain activity, skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will shift becoming north behind the cold front and bring us some cooler and less humid air this evening. Afternoon highs will be more seasonal today with highs in the mid 70s this afternoon. It will also become less humid as those lower dew points move in over the region this evening.


After a brief dry spell overnight tonight, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will return on Saturday. Guidance this morning doesn’t indicate any widespread shower or storm activity but I would expect a few patchy showers and thunderstorms across east-central Ohio during the day. Still, if you have yard work or ball games, Saturday will be the best day of the weekend to get those in.

Low pressure in the Plains will shift east and start to bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday. Warmer temperatures and more humid conditions can be expected on Sunday with a pretty good chance of showers and storms.


The trailing cold front associated with this system is pretty impressive and although the dynamics on Sunday aren’t all that great, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a few strong storms develop in the warm sector ahead of the cold front Sunday. High dew points, a bit of instability, and warm temperatures will be present. All that’s needed is a trigger.

We will continue to monitor future model runs today and Saturday.

A few leftover showers are possible Monday morning as low pressure along the Great Lakes shifts east. High pressure will follow and bring us a mix of sun and clouds for Monday afternoon. Cooler temperatures will set up behind that Sunday night cold front and a cooler pattern overall will pretty much stick around through next week.


This looks like a fairly cool weather map for next Thursday with a upper level trough setting up over the eastern US. Temperatures mid week next week may only get to the low 60s for highs – 15 degrees below where we should be.


These cooler temperatures may persist through the end of the month and temperatures could very well remain below normal into the first week of June. There are some model differences – I show the European ensemble here but the trend toward cooler temperatures is fairly consistent. That leads me to believe that a cooler regime will indeed dominate for a least ten days or so.

Have a great and safe weekend.


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Not quite as warm today with spotty showers and storms late; Cooler temperatures follow a weekend cold front

After a very warm and summer-like start to the day, temperatures once again will top out above average this afternoon, although not quite as warm as yesterday’s 88 degrees.


With these warm temperatures at the surface, it’s even a little warmer aloft which will work in our favor today keeping a ‘cap’ on thunderstorm development through early afternoon despite an unstable atmosphere. Later in the afternoon, though, that cap will weaken and eventually erode which will give the green light for thunderstorm activity late this afternoon and into the evening.

Any storms later this afternoon will be scattered but we do expect to see some activity popping up across east-central Ohio. We’ve kept a small chance for storms in the forecast for the Tuscarawas Valley during the afternoon. Chances for rain and thunder will get a little better late this evening and tonight as a cold front approaches the region.


This is a fairly weak front but with a warm, moist and unstable airmass in place overhead, it will provide a trigger for showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could get feisty and generate some gusty wind and hail and in response, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area under a ‘marginal’ or low risk for severe thunderstorms mainly late this afternoon through midnight.


A better chance for severe storms exists just to our north and a few of those may hold together long enough to reach this far south.

Here is how the hi-res model paints the radar through 1:00 am tonight:


For new readers not that this is a model depiction of how it ‘thinks’ the radar will look like. It only gives us an idea of how showers and storm might play out today and should not be taken literally. The thing to take away from this is the spotty nature of thunderstorms expected later today.

Instability will quickly fade tonight and with that support for thunderstorms as the frontal boundary stalls south of the region. Cooler air will rush in behind the front and temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday under building high pressure. We’ll call it partly sunny with afternoon temperatures in the 75 to 77 degree range for the Tuscarawas valley area.

With the front to our south, clouds will persist but they will thin enough to allow occasional peaks of sun.

Saturday looks to start out decent with dry weather during the morning. Temperatures should warm above average with winds turning south ahead of our next storm system. This will bring a stronger cold front across east-central Ohio and with that, better chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday.


There will also be an uptick in the amount of available moisture with this system, so showers and storms will be more widespread that those we see today. I’ll continue to monitor for any signs of severe weather with this system but for now, I’m not expecting it.

After a lull in shower and storm activity on Monday, an upper level trough sets up over the eastern half of the US next week bringing back a cooler than average regime that will stick around through next week.


Rain chances will increase on Tuesday and probably stick around through Wednesday evening. Our weather pattern will also turn cooler in the mid range and these cooler temperatures may well persist into the first days of June.



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A touch of summer today; A weak front brings the threat for thunderstorms Thursday

r those of us who enjoy the warm summerlike weather, today is our day. With a strong southerly flow established, temperatures will soar to around 90 degrees across the Tuscarawas Valley this afternoon.


While it will be a warm one today, we won’t beat our record high of 93 set back in 1962.

Along with the sunshine and warm temperatures, we’ll notice a touch of mugginess too with dew points climbing to the low 60s. And, we can expect a breezy day as those south winds kick up to 10 to 15 mph. Gusts could reach 25 mph at times.

We remain warm and dry overnight with temperatures in the upper 60s by early Thursday morning.

Is it unusual for temperatures in the Valley to reach 90 degrees in May? Not during recent years, anyway. Last year brought two 90-degree May days – the 28th and the 31st. But, records show that we’ve hit 90 degrees or better several times since 2011.


Granted, this record set only goes back 20 years but you can gather from the latest 20 years that 90-degree days in May have been more prevalent lately. Does that prove climate change locally? I wouldn’t think so. We would have to see if the trend continues 20 years into the future to get a better handle on a warmer climate trend.

The upper level ridge responsible for all the sunny and pleasant weather these last few days starts to break down Thursday. And, a cold front will approach Thursday afternoon crossing east-central Ohio Thursday night. With the very warm air in place overhead and colder air approaching, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late in the day.

The atmosphere will remain fairly well ‘capped’ during the majority of the day despite increasing instability. Toward late afternoon and evening, however, the cap will begin to weaken and allow thunderstorms to develop. Although an afternoon shower or storm will certainly be possible, computer models show optimal destabilization around and after sunset and this should work out to be the best time for thunderstorms here in the Valley.

Our chances for any severe thunderstorms is fairly low but some late afternoon and evening thunderstorms could be strong with gusty thunderstorm winds.


At this time, I do not think this will be a widespread thunderstorm threat and any strong storms will be isolated. However, as we all know, air has a tendency to move around quite a bit and change the forecast. I’ll continue to monitor for future changes.

The cold front should push south of the region by Friday but questions remain on how far south the boundary gets before it hangs up. MOST of today’s guidance keeps the boundary far enough south to allow for drier and cooler air to push in over the Valley on Friday. As a result, temperatures on Friday will be closer to our average mid May highs – mid to upper 70s.

Weak high pressure will drift eastward and into east-central Ohio Friday night into Saturday to bring us a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will warm to around 80 degrees Saturday afternoon.

Timing is an issue yet this morning with the arrival of our next – and stronger – cold front for Sunday. I still think the best timing will be Sunday afternoon and, at peak daytime heating, it will bring a pretty good threat for showers and storms.

Sunday should also be the warmer day of the weekend with highs in the low 80s.

Generally, a much cooler but drier weather pattern will set up behind Sunday’s cold front. There could be a few leftover showers yet Monday morning but drier air will work in for the afternoon to bring some sun. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will top out in the low 70s.

The cooler regime looks to continue through Memorial Day weekend and perhaps even into the first week of June.






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Warm today; Warmer tomorrow, then rain and storm chances increase for the latter part of the week

We’re at the halfway point in May…. already. So far, the month has been running cooler than average by three degrees, according to official records kept at the airport in New Philadelphia.

Average temperature the first 15 days came in at 54.5 degrees. We will make up some ground temperature wise over the next 5 or 6 days when temperatures are expected to be above average for a change.

Plenty of sunshine again today, but temperatures will be noticeably warmer this afternoon. Most neighborhoods across the Tuscarawas Valley will top out in the low 80s north – mid 80s in our southern communities.


We have a fairly dry atmosphere in place this morning, but dew points will begin to creep up mid day with a warm front crossing and winds shift out of the southwest.

Our weather stays dry and warm tonight with most areas only dropping off to the mid 60s by Wednesday morning.

With the warmer start to Wednesday and the valley being firmly in the warm sector behind today’s warm front, temperatures on Wednesday will be more like July. Temperatures across the Valley will approach, and probably exceed, the upper 80s tomorrow afternoon. I wouldn’t be at all surprised that most neighborhoods along and south of New Phila see 90 degrees.

It will also turn somewhat breezy but with winds coming out of the south, it will be a warm one. And, a bit more humid as dew points climb to the mid 60s. Some of those afternoon winds might approach 20 – 25 mph.

Normally this would be a recipe for showers and storms, but with a ‘capped’ atmosphere overhead and not much in the way of a trigger to get storms going, we won’t see that tomorrow.

Thursday should start out decent with a few more clouds but still quite warm. A weak cold front will sink southeast and that will bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any showers and/or storms look to be isolated in nature so, for now, I’ll go with a low chance on Thursday.

By Friday things become a little less clear, forecast wise. That cold front will stall *somewhere* in Ohio. I say somewhere because the GFS and European show different ideas on where that might be.

The GFS (shown here) keeps the stalled front far enough south to keep showers and storms along and south of I-70.


The European wants to bring it further north through central Ohio, which would mean showers and storms for the Valley. With thus much uncertainty we will need to keep the risk for showers and storms going again on Friday for now. I may change our rain chances in future forecasts depending on how this plays out.

Temperatures on Friday will be cooler with highs in the upper 70s behind the cold front.

Saturday brings a similar conundrum on Friday. Most modeling keeps the next system to our west Saturday which would bring a drier day. Still, I think our chances for showers and storms will increase mid to late afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west.

Regardless of Saturday’s rain, Sunday looks to be the wetter day of the weekend as low pressure crosses the Great Lakes and drags a cold front across Ohio.


I expect fairly good chances for showers and storms on Sunday but it’s still pretty far out for any ideas in regards to timing.

The relatively warmer temperatures will revert back to a cooler pattern next week after Sunday’s cold front. Keep in mind that our average high in the latter part of May is in the mid 70s, so cooler temperatures are relative.

Still, our computer models are honing in on a cooler pattern for next week.


Translated into numbers, this could mean daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s through the end of May and maybe even the first week or so of June.


The bottom line? Enjoy these next few days of warm, summerlike weather. The longer term looks like a return to below average temperatures to end the month.


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Spring weather resumes

Monday morning started out a little cool with most neighborhoods in the Valley in the low 40s this morning but we will quickly warm to the low 70s this afternoon under building high pressure.


If you’ve been waiting for a perfect spring day, this may well be it. Nothing but blue skies and bright sun will highlight the day.

The complete lack of clouds will allow our temperatures to cool off once again but it will not get quite as cold as last night. The latest guidance keeps the Tuscarawas Valley in the upper 40s tonight.

On Tuesday, a warm front will lift across Ohio and warmer summertime temperatures will spread into east-central Ohio during the afternoon. That will bring temperatures in the low 80s across the Tuscarawas Valley up to the low 80s tomorrow. And, with high pressure remaining in control, there should not be much in the way of clouds overhead.

Along with temperatures, we will begin to see our old friend ‘humidity’ return tomorrow. For those who work outdoors, it will slowly begin to feel muggier as we get into the afternoon and winds turn more out of the south. If you work indoors, you’ll immediately notice it when you exit the building and head out to the parking lot.

You can see the general upward trend in today’s SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) models.


By Wednesday, dew points will climb to the official muggy level with most area dew points getting to the mid 60s. Coupled with temperatures on Wednesday near 90 degrees, it will feel more like July than May.

Our record high in New Philadelphia is 93 set in 1962 and I think that will stand.

I do think that Wednesday will be the hottest day of the year so far. Temperatures will start to back off some by Thursday as showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast. I don’t see this as a widespread event, but scattered showers and storms will be popping up through the afternoon. No severe storms are expected.

A cold front drops across the region Thursday night sparking a better chance for showers and storms. This will be the best chance we’ll have of seeing any rain across the Valley. I am monitoring chances for strong storms but I’ll not raise any flags quite yet.

Any rain and thunderstorms should exit the region by Friday morning as the front slips southeast. After that, the models are not in real good agreement of the next system. Since there is still a lot of doubt, I’ll just keep the possibility for showers going through the weekend. I think our weekend weather will become more clear as we get later in the week and those models get a better handle on things.

Temperatures behind the front will definitely back off some behind Thursday night’s cold front but not by much. The cooler air will arrive behind the weekend front.




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Seasonably cool over Mother’s Day weekend; warming trend sets up next week

Clouds will pretty much rule the day across east-central Ohio. Temperatures this afternoon will also remain on the cool side and most neighborhoods across the Tuscarawas Valley will not do much better than 60 degrees or so for the afternoon high.


Normally we should be in the 70 to 72 degrees range for highs here in the Valley as we approach mid May.

I do think most will stay dry today but an isolated spritz of drizzle will be possible just about any time.

Low pressure will shift to the Carolina Coast by Saturday and we can expect to see some improvement with our weather in east-central Ohio in the afternoon.I expect we stay dry with some occasional sunshine interspaced with clouds


I expect we stay dry with some occasional sunshine interspaced with clouds. Temperatures will remain cool with most of the area topping out in the mid 60s for an afternoon high.

Mother’s Day is looking better again this morning. Again, chances are that we stay dry across the Valley on Sunday with a sun and cloud mix. Temperatures look to warm to around 70 for most communities.


After a cool weekend, things will finally start to turn around as we head into next week. A ridge of high pressure will shift from the central US east bringing an extended period of warmer temperatures through the week and into next weekend.


Temperatures will warm to around average on Monday, then climb upward peaking on Wednesday or Thursday where we will likely see highs in the low 80s.

Temperatures in the 80s will continue into next weekend with not much of a threat for precipitation through the period.


Keep in mind that confidence in these ensemble temperature trends decreases past day 5, but we can be fairly confident that at least it will be warmer all next week. So, those of us who’ve been waiting for spring, it’s arriving – just be a little patient while we get through the weekend.

I wish a happy and blessed Mother’s Day to all moms out there. I hope your special day is indeed ‘special’ for you.


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Heavy rainfall early Thursday will bring rising river levels along the Tusky

As we talked about in yesterday’s blog, a blob of rain and rumbles came through early this morning and actually managed to put down a pretty decent hit of rain.

Officially, just under an inch fell at the New Phila airport this morning:


This morning’s rainfall will eventually cause water levels to rise along the Tuscarawas River tonight through Friday. The river is already a bit higher than average due to recent rainfall across the region.

While water levels will rise noticeably over the next 24 hours they are forecast to remain just below flood stage before they begin dropping late Friday.


Water along the Tuscarawas River should continue falling through the weekend.

Occasional light rain showers will remain in the forecast through Saturday morning before things start to dry out on Mother’s Day.


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