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Sunny skies and mild temperatures through Tuesday; Rain and storm chances increase mid week

I hope everyone enjoyed some of the very pleasant weather here in the Valley over the Easter Weekend and had a great Easter. Except fot the spotty rain showers and thunder yesterday, the majority of the weekend turned out warm and dry.

The dry weather will continue today and Tuesday as high pressure takes control to bring a couple of mostly sunny days. Although temperatures will be just a little cooler behind last evening’s cold front, we will still have very pleasant afternoon temperatures today. Most neighborhoods around the Tuscarawas Valley will see temperatures right around 70 degrees.

04-17-ndfd-day1-max-temps

We’ll cool off to the mid 40s overnight but remain dry. Then, do it all over again on Tuesday with plenty of sunshine and afternoon temperatures reaching the 72 – 74 degree range.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
Our weather will turn more active as we approach mid week with a series of weather systems that will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.

The first weather maker, a weak cold front, will approach east-central Ohio Tuesday night. Current model guidance suggests we should stay mainly dry for the majority of the night, but I will introduce a slight chance for a shower early Wednesday morning. Shower and thunderstorm probabilities will gradually increase as we go through the day Wednesday, but showers and storms will be scattered at best.

04-17-gfs-60hr-ptype

With a limited amount of moisture available with this system I don’t think it will be a wash out and most of the day should be dry, although cloudy. Deeper

Deeper low pressure crossing on Thursday will offer us more moisture and a much better probability of getting wet. This one has the potential to bring widespread rain along with a thunderstorm or two.

04-17-gfs-84hr-ptype

Neither of these two systems will be potent enough to bring any severe thunderstorms to east-central Ohio but I’ll continue to monitor Thursday’s low as this one will be the stronger of the two systems.

Total precipitation expected here in the Valley through the period today through Friday morning will generally run about one-half to three-quarters of an inch – depending on Thursday’s thunderstorms.

04-17-wpc-96hr-precip

Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will stay warm despite the clouds and rain chances. Look for low 70s on Wednesday followed by mid 70s on Thursday.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND
A cold front sweeps across the region Thursday night that will knock temperatures back about ten degrees Friday. Those cooler 60-ish temperatures look to hang in there through the weekend.

High pressure will try to build back on Friday and that should bring us a mix of sun and clouds as well as returning dry weather to the region.Although there are differences in modeling this far out, high pressure may keep dry air and more sun going through Saturday. Our next low pressure system approaches Saturday night spreading moisture once again back into east-central Ohio on Sunday.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side – mostly in the 60s through mid week before trending upward toward the 70 degree mark as we enter next weekend.

04-17-ecmwf-15day-temps

Longer range outlooks call for about average temperatures for the latter part of April.

04-17-noaa-814day-temps

Precipitation for the same period looks to be around average to slightly above average.

04-17-noaa-814day-precip

JE

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