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Thursday afternoon severe weather update

I hope everyone is enjoying the nice summerlike day across east-central Ohio. At 2:00 pm, we have a mix of sun and clouds across the Tuscarawas Valley and temperatures generally around 80 degrees. We may tack on a couple of more degrees before the afternoon wanes towards evening.

04-20-230-temps

Nothing locally is showing up on radar at this time, but we do have some thunderstorms firing up in northern Indiana along our cold front. These will continue to intensify and travel southeast and into northwestern Ohio later on in the afternoon. With the atmosphere becoming increasingly unstable there and the potential for thunderstorms to intensify, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH until 8:00 pm for portions of western and central Ohio.

14-20-230p-tusc-radar

Notice that the Watch area does NOT include east-central Ohio at this time. We will continue to monitor the Storm Prediction Center and our local NWS offices for future updates.

In their latest discussion, the SPC indicates that isolated strong / locally severe thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon across eastern Ohio. At this time, a Watch is not likely for our area, BUT the SPC will continue to monitor the situation and may issue an update later today.

04-20-mcd0526

HOWEVER, an increase in thunderstorm development is expected across east-central Ohio late this afternoon and continuing into the evening. Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms with gusty wind and hail remain likely to occur. Just because a Watch is not anticipated in the short term does not mean strong to severe storms will not develop.

Portions of east-central Ohio – including the Tuscarawas valley – remain in the ‘slight risk’ category for severe thunderstorms.

04-20-spc-day1-outlook

A renegade thunderstorm is possible just about any time and any place this afternoon into the early evening. Our best window of opportunity for strong to severe storms will arrive this evening in the 7:00 to 9:00 PM time frame.Peak daytime heating and waning instability during that time will likely weaken thunderstorms as they travel southeast and into our area. Some could still pack a punch, though, so remain aware this afternoon and especially this evening.

Peak daytime heating will have already occurred and instability will be settling down during that time. With less heat and waning instability thunderstorms will likely weaken as they travel southeast and into our area. Some could still pack a punch, though, so remain aware this afternoon and especially this evening.

Hi-res Futurecast radar this afternoon through 7:00 am Friday:

04-20-hrrr_2017042017_ref_cleveland

SEVERE THREAT LEVELS
As mentioned earlier, the primary severe threat for our area will be damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. Moderate to large hail is also a threat, although it is a bit lower.

04-20-tuscrisk2

Some of these storms will also be capable of heavy rainfall but they should move through fairly quickly keeping the risk for flooding low. However, localized street and backyard flooding remain a possibility in the strongest thunderstorms.

I’ll post another update later this evening should anything change. Otherwise, remain weather aware and have a reliable way to receive any warnings late this afternoon and evening. Outdoor tornado sirens are NOT RECOMMENDED as a primary warning method.

JE

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