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A few showers and storms possible today and remain through the weekend

A cold front north of the Tuscarawas Valley will continue dropping south today eventually becoming hung up near the Ohio River this afternoon. The front will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon for those areas south of I-70.

Here in the Valley, we will need to keep a chance for scattered showers and thunder as the front progresses south this morning. The threat for strong or severe thunderstorms is pretty low here but it does tick upward along and south of I-70. Since weather doesn’t pay much attention to geographical borders, we will need to keep the possibility for a strong storm in the forecast late in the day through the evening.

05-19-spc-day1-outlook2

 

Here is a look how the hi-res short-term model THINKS the radar might look like through 2:00 am Saturday:

05-19-hrrr_2017051912_ref_cleveland

Barring any rain activity, skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will shift becoming north behind the cold front and bring us some cooler and less humid air this evening. Afternoon highs will be more seasonal today with highs in the mid 70s this afternoon. It will also become less humid as those lower dew points move in over the region this evening.

05-19-nam-18hr-dew-point

SATURDAY & SUNDAY
After a brief dry spell overnight tonight, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will return on Saturday. Guidance this morning doesn’t indicate any widespread shower or storm activity but I would expect a few patchy showers and thunderstorms across east-central Ohio during the day. Still, if you have yard work or ball games, Saturday will be the best day of the weekend to get those in.

Low pressure in the Plains will shift east and start to bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday. Warmer temperatures and more humid conditions can be expected on Sunday with a pretty good chance of showers and storms.

05-19-gfs-54hr-ptype

The trailing cold front associated with this system is pretty impressive and although the dynamics on Sunday aren’t all that great, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a few strong storms develop in the warm sector ahead of the cold front Sunday. High dew points, a bit of instability, and warm temperatures will be present. All that’s needed is a trigger.

We will continue to monitor future model runs today and Saturday.

NEXT WEEK: PATTERN SHIFT
A few leftover showers are possible Monday morning as low pressure along the Great Lakes shifts east. High pressure will follow and bring us a mix of sun and clouds for Monday afternoon. Cooler temperatures will set up behind that Sunday night cold front and a cooler pattern overall will pretty much stick around through next week.

05-19-gfs-144hr-500mb-pressure

This looks like a fairly cool weather map for next Thursday with a upper level trough setting up over the eastern US. Temperatures mid week next week may only get to the low 60s for highs – 15 degrees below where we should be.

05-19-ecmwf-15day-temps

These cooler temperatures may persist through the end of the month and temperatures could very well remain below normal into the first week of June. There are some model differences – I show the European ensemble here but the trend toward cooler temperatures is fairly consistent. That leads me to believe that a cooler regime will indeed dominate for a least ten days or so.

Have a great and safe weekend.

JE

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