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Spring weather resumes

Monday morning started out a little cool with most neighborhoods in the Valley in the low 40s this morning but we will quickly warm to the low 70s this afternoon under building high pressure.

05-15-ndfd-day1-max-temps

If you’ve been waiting for a perfect spring day, this may well be it. Nothing but blue skies and bright sun will highlight the day.

The complete lack of clouds will allow our temperatures to cool off once again but it will not get quite as cold as last night. The latest guidance keeps the Tuscarawas Valley in the upper 40s tonight.

On Tuesday, a warm front will lift across Ohio and warmer summertime temperatures will spread into east-central Ohio during the afternoon. That will bring temperatures in the low 80s across the Tuscarawas Valley up to the low 80s tomorrow. And, with high pressure remaining in control, there should not be much in the way of clouds overhead.

Along with temperatures, we will begin to see our old friend ‘humidity’ return tomorrow. For those who work outdoors, it will slowly begin to feel muggier as we get into the afternoon and winds turn more out of the south. If you work indoors, you’ll immediately notice it when you exit the building and head out to the parking lot.

You can see the general upward trend in today’s SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) models.

05-15-sref-dew-point-graph

By Wednesday, dew points will climb to the official muggy level with most area dew points getting to the mid 60s. Coupled with temperatures on Wednesday near 90 degrees, it will feel more like July than May.

Our record high in New Philadelphia is 93 set in 1962 and I think that will stand.

I do think that Wednesday will be the hottest day of the year so far. Temperatures will start to back off some by Thursday as showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast. I don’t see this as a widespread event, but scattered showers and storms will be popping up through the afternoon. No severe storms are expected.

A cold front drops across the region Thursday night sparking a better chance for showers and storms. This will be the best chance we’ll have of seeing any rain across the Valley. I am monitoring chances for strong storms but I’ll not raise any flags quite yet.

Any rain and thunderstorms should exit the region by Friday morning as the front slips southeast. After that, the models are not in real good agreement of the next system. Since there is still a lot of doubt, I’ll just keep the possibility for showers going through the weekend. I think our weekend weather will become more clear as we get later in the week and those models get a better handle on things.

Temperatures behind the front will definitely back off some behind Thursday night’s cold front but not by much. The cooler air will arrive behind the weekend front.

05-15-ecmwf-15day-temps

JE

 

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