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Warm today; Warmer tomorrow, then rain and storm chances increase for the latter part of the week

We’re at the halfway point in May…. already. So far, the month has been running cooler than average by three degrees, according to official records kept at the airport in New Philadelphia.

Average temperature the first 15 days came in at 54.5 degrees. We will make up some ground temperature wise over the next 5 or 6 days when temperatures are expected to be above average for a change.

TODAY & WEDNESDAY
Plenty of sunshine again today, but temperatures will be noticeably warmer this afternoon. Most neighborhoods across the Tuscarawas Valley will top out in the low 80s north – mid 80s in our southern communities.

05-16-ndfd-day1-max-temps

We have a fairly dry atmosphere in place this morning, but dew points will begin to creep up mid day with a warm front crossing and winds shift out of the southwest.

Our weather stays dry and warm tonight with most areas only dropping off to the mid 60s by Wednesday morning.

With the warmer start to Wednesday and the valley being firmly in the warm sector behind today’s warm front, temperatures on Wednesday will be more like July. Temperatures across the Valley will approach, and probably exceed, the upper 80s tomorrow afternoon. I wouldn’t be at all surprised that most neighborhoods along and south of New Phila see 90 degrees.

It will also turn somewhat breezy but with winds coming out of the south, it will be a warm one. And, a bit more humid as dew points climb to the mid 60s. Some of those afternoon winds might approach 20 – 25 mph.

Normally this would be a recipe for showers and storms, but with a ‘capped’ atmosphere overhead and not much in the way of a trigger to get storms going, we won’t see that tomorrow.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY
Thursday should start out decent with a few more clouds but still quite warm. A weak cold front will sink southeast and that will bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any showers and/or storms look to be isolated in nature so, for now, I’ll go with a low chance on Thursday.

By Friday things become a little less clear, forecast wise. That cold front will stall *somewhere* in Ohio. I say somewhere because the GFS and European show different ideas on where that might be.

The GFS (shown here) keeps the stalled front far enough south to keep showers and storms along and south of I-70.

05-16-gfs-84hr-ptype

The European wants to bring it further north through central Ohio, which would mean showers and storms for the Valley. With thus much uncertainty we will need to keep the risk for showers and storms going again on Friday for now. I may change our rain chances in future forecasts depending on how this plays out.

Temperatures on Friday will be cooler with highs in the upper 70s behind the cold front.

WEEKEND
Saturday brings a similar conundrum on Friday. Most modeling keeps the next system to our west Saturday which would bring a drier day. Still, I think our chances for showers and storms will increase mid to late afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west.

Regardless of Saturday’s rain, Sunday looks to be the wetter day of the weekend as low pressure crosses the Great Lakes and drags a cold front across Ohio.

05-16-gfs-138hr-ptype

I expect fairly good chances for showers and storms on Sunday but it’s still pretty far out for any ideas in regards to timing.

LONGER RANGE
The relatively warmer temperatures will revert back to a cooler pattern next week after Sunday’s cold front. Keep in mind that our average high in the latter part of May is in the mid 70s, so cooler temperatures are relative.

Still, our computer models are honing in on a cooler pattern for next week.

05-16-gfs-7day-500mb-heights

Translated into numbers, this could mean daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s through the end of May and maybe even the first week or so of June.

05-16-ecmwf-15day-temps

The bottom line? Enjoy these next few days of warm, summerlike weather. The longer term looks like a return to below average temperatures to end the month.

JE

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