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Classic summer weather with increasing mugginess and chances for scattered thunderstorms

Tuscarawas Valley Weather Details Update for Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Warm overnight temperatures will mean a head start Tuesday morning and temperatures will quickly warm to the upper 80s by mid afternoon across the Valley.

A noticeable difference will be the increase in humidity Tuesday. Coupled with temperatures just shy of 90, expect afternoon heat indices in the low 90s.

Another difference on Tuesday will be a back-door cold front that will swing through northern Ohio. (It’s called a backdoor front because – unlike most cold fronts that come from the northwest, this one will pivot in from the northEAST.)

06-12-gfs-24hr-ptype

This is a weak boundary but it will increase chances for an afternoon and evening shower or storm. Anything from this will be pretty spotty and not everyone will end up getting rain, but the threat will be there throughout the day.

Here’s an idea of how the radar might look like through midnight:

06-13-hrrr_2017061310_ref_cleveland

Not much in the way of concern for severe weather, but that doesn’t mean that a few of these storms couldn’t get a little feisty. And, any places that happen to get under one of these could end up with a decent downpour. Flash flooding is a possibility where the heaviest storms dump impressive rain.

The spotty coverage across east-central warrants a 30-percent chance for showers and storms for any single location today. Best chances will be 1:00 pm through 6:00 pm.

The front will eventually get hung up over northern Ohio on Wednesday and, depending on just how far south it may dip, there will be a better chance for showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

While there is not much of a severe weather threat on Wednesday, there will be enough instability and moisture to create thunderstorms. Some could get a little strong with gusty wind and hail. With a generous amount of moisture to work with, some of these cells could put down heavy rainfall. Flash flooding could be an issue especially if these turn out to be slow-movers.

The Storm Prediction Center has all of Ohio highlighted for a Marginal (Low) Risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.

06-13-spc-day2-outlook

Thunderstorm chances should decrease Wednesday night, but things will become active again on Thursday with the advance of another cold front out of the Plains.

Like Wednesday, modest instability and limited shear will keep the threat of severe weather low. And, also like Wednesday, these look to be slow-movers and potentially could produce areas of heavy downpours. Flash flooding will be possible if any of our neighborhoods happen to get under a thunderstorm.

The cold front should exit east-central Ohio early Friday morning bringing an end to the threat of showers and storms. Clouds will stick around Friday but we will end up with occasional sunshine and a decent summer day.

Temperatures through the period will generally hover in the mid 80s but it will more humid today through Thursday. The mugginess will subside a bit behind the cold front Friday.

06-13-dew-point-trend

WEEKEND OUTLOOK
Upper level troughiness with disturbances riding along the upper level flow will keep the threat for occasional showers and storms through the weekend. Although temperatures through the weekend will remain warm, a cold front will approach the region late Sunday for an early Monday morning crossing. This front will be strong enough to bring cooler temperatures for the start of the next work week.

06-13-ecmwf-15day-temps

Cooler temperatures look to remain for a while next week with temperatures a few degrees below average for next weekend. That’s good new for those who aren’t too keen on these warm muggy summer days.

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