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Low chances for a shower or storm late Friday; Sunny, warm and summer-like weekend

Skies remained mostly clear overnight and that allowed temperatures to be a bit chilly early this morning. We had 47 degrees here at TuscWeather.net headquarters just south of New Phila. Officially, though, at the airport we started out with a low of 49 degrees.

While 49 degrees is pretty chilly for early June, it wasn’t cold enough to beat our record low of 40 set in 1994.

We will quickly warm up this morning and most neighborhoods should see afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

06-09-ndfd-day1-max-temps

We will begin to see clouds increase early this afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance drops across east-central Ohio. There doesn’t appear to be a lot of moisture with this little system and it should weaken as it approaches the Tuscarawas Valley. Still, I will need to keep a low chance for a shower occurring at some point during the late afternoon and evening.

There also isn’t much instability present, but there will be enough to spark a thunderstorm or two. Hi-res futurecast¬†today through 2:00 am Saturday (18 hours):

06-09-hrrr_2017060912_ref_cleveland

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
Aside from a leftover shower early Saturday morning, it will be warm and dry for the weekend as an upper level ridge develops over the eastern US and surface high pressure builds overhead.

With sunshine breaking out Saturday expect temperatures to quicky warm to the low 80s across the Valley. Sunday will bring a sun-filled day with temperatures in the upper 80s – near 90 in some areas.

06-09-gfs-60hr-ptype

Despite the warm temperatures, the humidity will remain reasonable on Saturday. Sunday will be a bit more humid as dew points get to around 60 or so, but still not horrible yet. With practically no clouds to speak of on Sunday, UV levels will be high, so it won’t take very long skin exposure to get a sunburn. Sunscreen will be your friend.

MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
Hot temperatures will get underway Monday and remain through mid week across the region. In addition, we will start to see dew points creep up as well which will make it feel more like summer Рhot and muggy.

On Monday those dew points will reach the low 60s – and mid 60s by Tuesday. Wednesday will be the muggiest day of the period when dew points get to the upper 60s – maybe 70 degrees.

06-09-dew-point-trend

For those folks new to my blog, dew points are a more accurate way of measuring how humid the air is. Most people are familiar with relative humidity (RH). RH is stated as a percentage and is dependent on actual air temperature so it can vary dramatically. Dew points better convey how ‘uncomfortable’ the air ‘feels’ on a hot – or cold – day.

Generally, as shown in the above graphic, the higher the dew point, the more humid and muggy it feels – regardless of what the air temperature may be.

A backdoor cold front approaches from New England Wednesday that could signal scattered showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front – this one stronger – approaches Thursday that COULD bring strong thunderstorms Thursday late day and night.

06-09-gfs-156hr-ptype

This feature is pretty far out there yet and there are tons of things that will change. But, it’s something that bears keeping aware of that might have an impact on our area late next week.

PRECIPITATION & RIVER FORECAST
Except for that little system pushing through Friday and Friday night, rainfall will be pretty much non-existent over the next 5 days in east-central Ohio.

06-09-wpc-5day-precip

With the lack of any appreciable rain, river levels along the Tuscarawas will remain average through the period.

06-09-nws-hydrograph

Have a great weekend!

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