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Remaining warm and humid with a low risk for strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening

Thursday will be much like yesterday – warm and humid with chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

With a decent amount of instability during the afternoon, some storms could be strong with isolated severe thunderstorms possible across east-central Ohio. Gusty wind and hail are the main threats but with very little air movement again today, slow-moving storms will be capable of putting down heavy rain in spots.

The Storm Prediction Center has all of Ohio highlighted for a low risk of severe storms again today.

06-15-spc-day1-outlook

Hi-resolution model guidance suggests that clusters of unorganized thunderstorms will be around through the afternoon and this evening. SIMULATED radar through 2:00 am Friday:

06-15-hrrr_2017061512_ref_cleveland

With more clouds today and those afternoon storms around, temperatures today should be a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday. Generally, most communities in the Valley should see temps in the mid 80s.

06-15-ndfd-day1-max-temps

While it should be a bit cooler today, it will still be quite humid with dew points this afternoon in the uper 60s to around 70 degrees.  Actually, this soupy atmosphere will likely stick around through the rest of the week and remain through the weekend.

06-15-dew-point-trend

Showers and storms exit east tonight and dryer air moves in for Friday. With weak high pressure overhead tomorrow it should be a nice summer day. Temperatures Friday will top out pretty much the same as today – mid to upper 80s. The difference will be a little less humidity.

WEEKEND WEATHER
Things look fairly calm on Saturday with weak high pressure remaining in control. Although, it will be hot and muggier than Friday with temperatures near 90 and dew points in the upper 60s to around 70. There should be a good amount of sunshine.

The only fly in the ointment is a weak disturbance that will come through that might spark a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Went with low chances for that in the forecast update.

Sunday – Father’s Day – is shaping up to be an active weather day with a strong cold front due to approach Sunday afternoon. Out ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will become likely by the afternoon.

We’ll have a very warm and soupy airmass over east-central Ohio ahead of the front. The atmosphere will be very unstable and with a strong cold front advancing, it’s an almost perfect recipe for severe weather.

06-15-gfs-90hr-ptype

While it’s still a bit far out for specifics yet, it does have my attention. Keep this in mind when making your plans for Father’s Day – especially outdoor plans for the afternoon and evening. I’m not raising any red flags yet, but I do want to give everyone a head’s up. Keep up with the forecast for Sunday.

Cooler and dryer air will rush in behind Sunday night’s front that will bring noticeable changes to our weather for next week (As shown in the dew point trend above). Temperatures will drop back to the 70s for daytime highs through mid week. That humidity will be swept away too leaving us with some very pleasant temperatures next week.

06-15-ecmwf-15day-temps

RIVER FORECAST
No problems along the Tusky over the next five days. Even with the potential for areas of heavy rain today, levels should remain nominal.

06-15-tusky-hydrograph

Keep the severe potential Sunday in the back of your mind and check the forecast often – especially if you have outdoor plans for Father’s Day. It’s not a slam-dunk, but it is something that I’m watching closely.

Have a Great Thursday.

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