A warm, humid, and unstable airmass will be in place across east-central Ohio on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front that will serve as the spark for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm quickly to the upper 80s early Sunday afternoon and dew points – a measure of how ‘soupy’ that air is – will get to the low 70s.
The Storm Prediction Center has places all of eastern Ohio under a ‘Slight Risk’ (2/5) for severe thunderstorms on Sunday.
A ‘Slight Risk’ means that scattered short-lived severe thunderstorms are possible within 25 miles of any one location highlighted in the risk area.
As of Saturday morning, there remains some minor timing differences between models but all of the models are in agreement with the front approaching eastern Ohio during peak afternoon heating. With favorable instability and sufficient upper level shear present, conditions will be prime for strong to severe storms.
The primary threat for tomorrow’s storms will be the potential for damaging winds. Hail and pockets of heavy rainfall will also be possible with these thunderstorms.
The risk for tornadoes is low – BUT NOT ZERO.
Timing solutions will be worked out and fine-tuned in later model runs but it appears that chances for thunderstorms will begin to ramp up shortly after lunch time Sunday. Thunderstorms will threaten through much of the afternoon and evening before tapering off to showers Sunday night.
A look at the 3Km NAM (North American Model) and what it thinks the radar might look like at 5:00 PM Sunday:
NEW READER NOTE: This is a model projection based on the current weather data available at 8:00 am this morning. It’s only an idea. Actual radar could and probably will be quite different, but this can give us an example of how storms might cover the region.
Many have outdoor plans for Father’s Day and thunderstorms are likely. Those outdoors should remain aware of weather conditions during the afternoon and be prepared to take shelter should thunderstorms threaten. WHEN THUNDER ROARS – GET INDOORS.
Thunderstorms tomorrow will also have the potential for heavy rainfall. Flash flooding could be an issue.