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Steadily improving weather conditions ahead of the weekend warm up

After a very unseasonably cool day yesterday, we will begin to see improvements today (Thursday) as high pressure nudges in from the west. It won’t be completely cloud free, but at least we’ll see periods of sunshine this afternoon.

Temperatures will also improve today and most neighborhoods in the Tuscarawas Valley should see afternoon highs around 70 to 72 degrees.

With low pressure spinning in the upper level just to the east of Ohio, we will need to keep a slight chance for a popup shower just about anywhere over east-central Ohio during the afternoon. The latest run of the hi-res model is less enthusiastic with the showers than earlier runs, so I’ve lowered rain chances in the forecast for today.

Here how the radar might look like through 1:00 am Friday morning:

06-08-hrrr_2017060811_ref_cleveland

Any of these should be widely spaced and none will last long.We’ll remain dry overnight tonight and into the first part of Friday as high pressure makes its way east. However, a disturbance will move through Friday afternoon that will bring us another chance for a spotty shower Friday afternoon and evening. The chance for any neighborhoods getting rain will increase Friday night, but again, these should be fairly spread out and not everyone will get rain.

We’ll remain dry overnight tonight and into the first part of Friday as high pressure makes its way east. However, a disturbance will move through Friday afternoon that will bring us another chance for a spotty shower Friday afternoon and evening. The chance for any neighborhoods getting rain will increase Friday night, but again, these should be fairly spread out and not everyone will get rain.

06-08-gfs-36hr-ptype

Temperatures on Friday will warm further and most areas should see highs tomorrow well in the upper 70s.

WEEKEND WARMUP
A lingering shower will be possible Saturday morning but behind this dry conditions will remain through the remainder of the weekend and into the first part of next week.

An upper level ridge of high pressure will build Saturday and Sunday and bring a surge of warm air to east-central Ohio that will persist through mid week next week. We’ll see the warmest temperatures of the season so far over this five day period.

06-08-gfs-84hr-500mb-temps

Temperatures on Saturday will reach the low 80s under mostly sunny skies. We can expect upper 80s to near 90 degrees on Sunday.

The heat will continue as we head into a new work week with highs in the low 90s through Wednesday.

And, it will gradually begin to feel like summer. Along with the rising temperatures, dew points will slowly creep up too and by Wednesday it’s going to feel like mid July here in the Valley.

06-07-dew-point-trend

With dew points getting up there early next week, it will bring heat index values to the low/mid 90s. The increasing mugginess will also have an impact for those who work outdoors or in a closed shop. It gonna get hot and sweaty so take the necessary precautions. The hottest day of the week looks to be Wednesday, but it will still be plenty warm Monday and Tuesday too.

As for how long the heat stays, there are differences in the major ensemble forecasts as we look further out. The GFS is mighty warm – and I think a little too warm.

06-08-gefs-16day-temps

While at the same time, the European I think is a little conservative for the same period.

06-08-ecmwf-15day-temps

I think the reality will be somewhere between these two ensemble trends looking out in the mid term. In any event, it appears that summer finally establishes itself and we can look forward to some lake and pool time.

RIVER FORECAST
The prospects for any appreciable rainfall over the next 7 days looks pretty slim. As the ridge builds over the weekend our chances for rain will be non-existant to say the least.

06-08-wpc-7day-precip

The majority of expected rainfall will come today and with that little disturbance tomorrow night. After Friday, rain prospects will be slim to none through Wednesday. As such, river levels will remain nominal.

06-08-nws-hydrograph

JE

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