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Thursday mid afternoon update

As discussed this morning, the early morning showers and thunderstorms have lessened the chances for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in the Tuscarawas Valley area. That and the fact that cloud cover did hold through this afternoon and prevented instability from getting out of hand.

As such, the Storm Prediction Center has removed ALL of Ohio from the slight risk for the remainder of the day. A marginal risk means that an ISOLATED strong storm is still possible but the threat for any severe storms is really low.

07-13-spc-day1-outlook3

The next mid level disturbance arrives later tonight and this will again raise the prospects for showers and thunderstorms this evening. And, as with today’s activity, high resolution modeling is shifting the bulk of evening activity further south.

For the rest of this afternoon and evening, we can expect a few showers and maybe a rumble or two of thunder. But, I don’t think we’re looking at anything serious for the rest of the day and tonight.

While there may be a few areas of heavy rainfall, the threat for widespread heavy rain and flooding has also lessened dramatically the National Weather Service is likely to cancel the Flash Flood Watch in at least Tuscarawas, Coshocton and Carroll counties by evening. The Flash Flood Warning for Muskingum County remains in effect until 4:15 p.m.

Overnight we will see the threat for showers and storms diminish. Patchy fog looks to develop after 4:00 a.m., so be mindful of that if you’re headed out to work early. Patchy fog and/or mist is possible for the morning commute.

Once that cold front I discussed in this morning’s blog shifts south of the area, the threat for rain and storms will come to a screeching halt. Drier air will begin to replace the humid conditions and skies should begin clearing tomorrow afternoon.

07-13-dew-point-trend

With much less humid conditions and seasonal weekend temperatures we can all look forward to a nice warm summer weekend.

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