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Thursday morning update for today’s severe threat and the potential for heavy rain

The first of two periods of showers and thunderstorms is underway this morning. This morning’s activity is rather unorganized – the result of a somewhat more stable atmosphere this early in the day.

And, while this first encounter is not all that impressive, with the soupy atmosphere in place, it will have the potential to put down some heavy rainfall in spots before it exits east of the region by mid morning.

A lull in activity will follow once this first batch of activity clears the region followed by a second round of showers and storms later this afternoon.

The questions then become how long will the lull in activity last and how much sun are we likely to see early this afternoon.

TODAY’S WEATHER CONCERNS
A second – and quite possibly more substantial – round of showers and thunderstorms is likely to develop later this afternoon. This second batch is the one we will need to pay attention too – depending on whether the atmosphere has enough time and energy to ‘recharge’.

The Storm Prediction Center has our area highlighted in the ‘slight’ or standard risk for severe storms this afternoon.

07-13-spc-day1-outlook

This morning’s guidance shows a fairly thick cloud deck through much of the day which would limit the amount of sunshine and heating. Still, instability will remain elevated overhead this afternoon and it wouldn’t take much to spark a few scattered strong thunderstorms.

The main severe threat will come from damaging wind gusts. The threat for large hail is low as is the threat for tornadoes. That doesn’t rule hail and tornadoes out completely but these threats are lower than the threat for gusty winds.

The biggest concern today will be the heavy rain potential. As you can feel if you have spent any time outside this morning, it is very humid. There is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere available for heavy rain.

ANY thunderstorms today whether they’re severe or not, will be capable of producing torrential rainfall. AND, this is a slow-moving system, so heavy rain could fall for a longer periods over the same areas (Training). These training showers and storms dramatically increase the flash flood potential across central Tuscarawas County.

07-12-tusc-risk

The risk for severe storms is modest at best – depending on whether we see any amount of sun or not.

Clouds will be our friend today and hopefully we won’t have to deal with any damaging wind. With the ground already saturated from recent heavy rainfall and trees are weakened. Any strong winds will make it pretty easy to bring some down.

Heavy rain will be the big problem this afternoon and as a precaution, the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood WATCH for all of east-central Ohio until 11:00 a.m. Friday.

07-13-flood-watch

TIMING
There remains plenty of differences between models in regards to timing. The majority do agree on a lull in widespread showers and storms through mid afternoon. Showers and storms look to ramp up by early evening peaking at around sunset before tapering off tonight.

Yet another upper level disturbance together with an approaching cold front will keep shower and thunderstorm chances going through the overnight and into early Friday afternoon.

HOW MUCH RAIN CAN WE EXPECT?
Portions of east-central Ohio are rips for heavy rainfall. I think most of the Tuscarawas Valley can expect 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next 36 hours (ending Friday evening).

07-13-wpc-36hr-precip

RIVER FORECAST
Rain today and Friday will work to keep water levels along the Tuscarawas elevated through the weekend.

07-13-tusky-hydrograph

I’ll have updates throughout the day on our Twitter and Facebook pages.

What about the weekend weather? Yesterday’s blog has the rest of my forecast for the weekend and early next week.

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One Response to Thursday morning update for today’s severe threat and the potential for heavy rain

  1. Todd Trimble says:

    Thank you as always for the great weather posts.
    Talk soon.
    Todd



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