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A dreary couple of days; Somewhat improved weather for Mother’s Day

Damp and dreary day across east-central Ohio for Thursday. With ample cloud cover around temperatures will struggle a bit this afternoon and it doesn’t look like we will manage to get much better than the mid 60s today.


While the majority of morning rain has moved off to the east, an isolated shower or drizzle will be possible through the afternoon. FutureCast radar through 2:00 am Friday:


We stay dry with warmer temperatures overnight thanks to the clouds overhead. Lows across the Tuscarawas Valley will generally bottom out in the low 50s.

Don’t expect much improvement on Friday. Clouds will stick around along with the threat for a few scattered showers just about anywhere. Temperatures tomorrow will remain cool with highs in the low 60s.

While it won’t be the best weekend weather wise, our weather will improve *SOMEWHAT* on Saturday and Mother’s Day.

Low pressure along the Carolina Coast will travel north into New England over the weekend. This will keep the low threat for showers and/or drizzle in the Valley forecast – especially Saturday morning.


By Saturday afternoon this system should shift far enough north to allow for some clearing and occasional peaks of sun in east-central Ohio. Temperatures Saturday will remain cool, though, with highs once again in the mid 60s.

Sunday should bring improving weather to the area as that storm system off the east coast inches further into New England. For now, it looks like Mother’s Day brings a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures improving a couple of clicks to the 66/68 degree range.


Although the chances look pretty slim today I can’t completely rule out an isolated shower at some point Sunday afternoon. This may improve in later forecasts, but for today, there is just a bit of a chance for sprinkles somewhere and at some point Sunday.

Hang in there a bit folks. After this weekend, spring will resume next week. A pattern shift gets underway as we head into the start of the new work week. A ridge of high pressure in the central US will shift east early next week and persist through at least the next 7 to 10 days.


Generally what this means is warmer temperatures are headed our way as we go through the week. In response to this eastern ridging, temperatures will warm to around average on Monday and the warming will continue into mid week.



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Occasional Sun and warmer today; Clouds and rain chances increase tonight with rain likely on Thursday

High pressure will bring another dry day to the Tuscarawas Valley today. Clouds will increase this afternoon as a frontal boundary south of our area and along the Ohio River, wobbles a bit north. Any precipitation with this should remain south of the Valley but I can’t rule out a sprinkle or light shower at some point along and south of I-70.

With the warmer start this morning, temperatures this afternoon will look more like they should be – around 70 degrees for most neighborhoods.


Low pressure out of the Midwest will move east along that quasi-stationary boundary tonight and Thursday will bring a low chance for a shower or two this evening and tonight.


NEW EDIT @ 6:00 PM | Hi-res guidance wants to bring a decent slug of rain into the Tuscarawas Valley area early in the morning. Rain may continue as you head out to work and/or school then pushes east of the region by mid morning.

SIMULATED radar tonight through 9:00 AM:


Off-and-on rain chances, and even perhaps a thunderstorm, Thursday and Thursday afternoon as the low inches closer to central Ohio.

ONE THING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON is the model trend toward increasing instability and shear Thursday late afternoon and evening. Things don’t look quite convincing enough to bring attention yet, but it is enough to monitor for the potential of strong storms – especially along and south of I-70.


Temperatures on Thursday will be similar to today with highs in the upper 60s.

That low will stall just to our east on Friday keeping the cloud cover and threat for on-and-off showers going through the majority of the day.

A little iffy yet weather wise on Saturday as our low shifts to the Mid-Atlantic. In any event, it looks like a cloudy start to the day with perhaps a few sprinkles or drizzle early.


But, things should begin to clear up by the afternoon with a weak ridge of high pressure building south. Temperatures will be a bit cooler though with the clouds around with highs in the mid 60s.

Mother’s Day on Sunday looks to be the better day of the weekend with low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast.


The GFS and the European want to bring in spotty showers Sunday afternoon but I think that’s a bit overdone. While I can’t rule out a shower on Sunday, the chances are pretty low.

Again, temperatures will be cool for the season on Mother’s Day with highs in the mid 60s.

While it’s been a cool start to May these first ten days, things will begin to warm as we head into next week. After another cool day on Monday, warmer air will finally enter the eastern third of the country and allow for temperatures to warm into the 70s by Tuesday.

The Climate Forecast System shows a definite warming trend in the 10 to 15 day temperature outlook signaling a return to above-average temperatures toward mid May.


Just hang in there through the weekend. Warmer temperatures and spring will resume after this brief break.


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Mostly dry but remaining cool through the first half of the week

Temperatures across the Tuscarawas Valley were very chilly this morning as we expected with many neighborhoods dropping to freezing – and even below 32 degrees. It was 31 at 6:00 am at TuscWeather.net World Headquarters. Officially we got down to 33 at Harry Clever Field in New Philadelphia.

Here is a sampling of backyard low temperatures across the region in our area:


The Freeze Warning in place for this morning across the area has been allowed to expire at 9:00 am on schedule. A FROST ADVISORY has been hoisted for all areas – including the Tuscarawas Valley area – for tonight.

Yes. May has been off to a slow start, temperature wise. But not THE coldest in recent years. May 2005 was much colder during the first week and last year we were just about average.


Today will be a near carbon copy of Sunday’s weather with bright sunshine across the Valley. And, like yesterday, temperatures will be on the cool side again with most neighborhoods getting to around the mid 50s for highs today. That’s 15 degrees cooler than the 70 degrees we should be seeing for the first part of May.

With mostly clear skies again tonight, temperatures will dip to near freezing again, hence the Frost Advisory for tonight.


Tuesday will start out bright and sunny but we will start to see increasing clouds as we near the afternoon. A weak warm front will bring a low threat for some afternoon and evening showers.


Most of the precipitation associated with this little bump will stay along and south of I-70 but I’ll keep a low (20%) chance that a few sprinkles migrate far enough north and affect some of our southern communities.

The good news is temperatures will recover a bit after the front crosses and that will help push us back to the mid 60s Wednesday afternoon. With high pressure returning, it will be a fine spring day here in the Valley.

A disturbance will ride along the nearby warm front Wednesday night prompting another low threat for some spotty showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This should clear out Thursday afternoon and allow for clouds to thin enough for occasional afternoon sun.

Models continue to show precipitation staying south of the valley and along the Ohio River on Friday. For now I’ll keep the forecast dry but I may need to introduce low chances for a spotty shower in later forecasts should the models trend the boundary further north.

Temperatures during the latter part of the week won’t vary much with most neighborhoods staying pretty much in the mid 60s for afternoon highs.

Upper level trough over the Great Lakes will keep the threat for occasional showers going over the weekend. Energy rotating through the trough will bring iffy chances for some rain Saturday. By Sunday, some of the models hint at weakening that energy on Sunday.

For now I’ll keep a 50/50 shot at a shower or spritz on Saturday then lower chances for rain on Sunday. Again, if you have outdoor plans over the weekend with mom, keep close tabs on the forecast.

Even with the threat for a few showers through portions of the week, total rain won’t amount to much more than a couple of tenths of so.


While temperatures will remain below our average low 70s for this period, at least it won’t be cold. Temperatures should remain in the low/mid 60s for weekend highs.

Actually, this cool temperature trend has all the signs of continuing through mid month with temperatures generally hovering below average for the next week or so.


After mid month it looks like things finally begin to turn around for us and temperatures warm back up to about where we should be for the latter half of May.

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Frost Possible Monday and Tuesday mornings


Temperatures Sunday night will dip to the mid/low 30s with clearing skies. FROST will be possible early Monday morning should winds become calm.


Precautions are recommended to protect plants from frost damage Sunday night and again Monday night.



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More rain today but conditions will slowly improve over the latter half of the weekend

Our rain forecast seems to be pretty much on track so far this morning. Generally, most neighborhoods around the Tuscarawas Valley have received three-quarters to around an inch of rain so far with this system with the majority of the rainfall occurring overnight:


Rain will continue today as the storm system responsible for our wet weather travels directly overhead as it makes its way north of east-central Ohio late this afternoon.


As the system SLOWLY shifts northeast a dry slot will pivot over east-central Ohio and allow clouds to thin some. This will allow for warmer temperatures this afternoon and maybe even a few peaks of sunshine. The warmer temperatures this afternoon will also increase instability and a few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and this evening with this elevated instability.

No severe storms are likely in east-central Ohio today but a few stronger storms will be possible just to our east where there will be more time for temperatures to warm before sunset.


Winds this evening will turn northwest and it will get breezy overnight. Gusts could get as high as 20/25 mph at times.

Not much has changed in regards to the weekend weather outlook. Saturday will bring another not-so-great day to the region with rain continuing Saturday morning and colder temperatures will overspread in that northwest flow.

The steady and gloomy rain will become more scattered in nature as our storm system slowly moves further north and east of Ohio in the afternoon.


While Sunday looks to start out with isolated showers early, our weather will begin to show signs of improvement by the afternoon. We may even get into some sunshine as clouds scatter out. The good news is that all this rain will end finally.

Temperatures, however, will be another story. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be noticeably cooler with highs not getting much better than the mid 50s on both days.

And, nighttime temperatures Sunday night and again Monday night will dip to the mid 30s as high pressure builds Sunday night. I know there has been some discussion of frost possible Sunday and Monday night but I think that will be more of a problem for northern Ohio counties. Generally, I don’t think we’ll have any frost issues here in east-central Ohio and particularly the Tuscarawas Valley.

Generally, I don’t think we’ll have any widespread frost issues here in east-central Ohio and particularly the Tuscarawas Valley. Skies Sunday night will be clearing and temperatures will drop off to the mid 30s be early Monday morning. The big question is wind - will it become calm enough for frost to form.The areas that will need to be watched for frost are those communities around New Philadelphia and north. Those south of new Phila will likely be okay.

The areas that will need to be watched for frost are those communities around New Philadelphia and north. If you’re in this general area and you’ve started your spring gardening, I would keep close tabs on those Sunday night and Monday night forecasts.

It’s not unusual for nighttime temperatures to reach freezing during early May here in the Valley.

A couple of dry and sunny, although cool, days Monday and Tuesday with high pressure in control. Our chances for showers returns mid week with the next low arriving from the northwest.

After the brief colder than average temperatures over the weekend and into the first half of next week, a warming trend will take us into mid month.


Have a safe weekend.


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Here’s the latest on the Tuscarawas Valley rain for Thursday and Friday

After a decent Wednesday across the Valley that brought welcoming sunshine, our weather will return to a wet pattern tonight and continue through Saturday.

Although thunderstorms are not anticipated with this next weather system, prolonged rainfall – at times moderate to heavy – will raise concerns for localized street and backyard flooding.

Clouds will increase tonight ahead of low pressure arriving from the Midwest. Moisture associated with this system will begin entering southwest Ohio late tonight. We can expect scattered showers to begin here in the Valley between midnight and 2:00 AM.

Dew points are fairly low this evening across east-central Ohio, meaning that there is very dry air in place overhead. As moisture aloft increases tonight it will take some time to overcome the dry air. This will, however, only delay the inevitable and scattered showers will eventually get underway before sunrise Thursday.

Here’s how hi-res futurecast projects radar tonight through 10:00 AM Thursday (18 hours):


Remember, this is a simulation and the radar won’t look EXACTLY like this, but the model does give us an idea of how things will play out.

The steadiest rainfall will arrive after mid morning and continue into the afternoon. There may be a couple of breaks now and then. A dry slot – an area of little or no precipitation – may set up and move into east-central Ohio sometime during the afternoon. Some modeling shows this but it would be difficult to nail down an exact time or area. Otherwise, rain will pretty much be with us through the bulk of the day.

Along with the rain, southeast wind will pick up in the late morning to around 8 to 12 mph. Gusts could be as high as 25 mph.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible Thursday evening and Thursday night. This is the period where we’ll have to be mindful of possible local flooding.

Rain will likely remain with us through Friday although those southeast winds will have died down becoming southwest as they system tracks nearly overhead on Friday.


Although rain will be with us yet on Friday it will be more ‘showery’ in nature and not as heavy as Thursday.

Drier air will eventually begin to wrap in as the system tracks toward the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday. While Saturday will certainly not be a bright sunny day, rain will become more spotty Saturday afternoon as the system pulls away.

This is a lumbering system and we’ll be in for an extended period of rain and showers over the next 72 hours. Current guidance shows that generally, we can expect around an inch to an inch-and-a-half through Saturday afternoon.


Should this lean toward the higher amounts we will have to watch for more problems with flooding. As it is now, we should be good other than minor backyard and street flooding.

River levels are already elevated due to the recent rain earlier this week. While flooding is not forecast by NOAA, I do expect we’ll see another bump in water levels on Friday and Saturday.


I’ll have more updates tomorrow as the event gets underway. I’ll have the latest look at the new data and keep you posted.


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Dry weather today with some afternoon sunshine but steady rain will move in for Thursday and Friday

A couple of renegade isolated showers are around the region this morning but these will dissipate by mid morning as high pressure takes over our weather for today.

We can expect thinning clouds and occasional sunshine this afternoon, although temperatures will remain on the cool side. Generally, most neighborhoods across the Tuscarawas Valley will reach the upper 50s to near 60 or so.


Today will likely be THE best day this week complete any outdoor chores around the house – mowing the lawn or cleaning up after Monday’s thunderstorms. The rest of the week will be chilly and wet.

While we will see a break in our cloud cover this afternoon, it will be brief. Clouds will increase again this evening ahead of the next weather system that will bring an extended period of wet weather to east-central Ohio.

Low pressure will approach from midwest tonight spreading rain showers across east-central Ohio by Thursday morning.


I wouldn’t count on much dry time across the Valley on Thursday. I think rain will be fairly steady for the majority of the day.

Friday won’t be much better. Steady morning rainfall may lessen some during the afternoon and become more scattered showers as the center of low pressure travels overhead. We could even get into a few short breaks now and then but eventually, wrap around showers will return later in the evening as the low pulls further away.


Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be cooler than average for early May with afternoon highs in the mid 60s.

Rainfall totals through Friday night will run generally between and inch and an inch-and-a-half.


Rain may be heavy at times, especially on Thursday and Thursday night. Localized street and small stream flooding could be an issue where the heaviest rain occurs.

Occasional rain showers will be likely Saturday morning as the system continues to track toward the eastern Great Lakes region. These will slowly diminish Saturday night as the system pulls farther away. Still, Saturday is not going to be a very nice day. Cool temperatures in the 50s and breezy conditions will accompany those rain showers.

By Sunday things will begin to look more positive and I think Sunday will be the better day of the weekend. Some sunshine will break out but temperatures will remain in the mid 50s.

EARLY GARDNERS: A couple of nights over the weekend will need to be monitored for unseasonably cold temperatures. Sunday night’s nighttime temperatures will be the coldest with some getting as cold as the upper 30s.


Cool temperatures are likely to continue through next week. By cool I mean cooler than average. Temperatures for early May in the Tuscarawas Valley should be running in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Temperatures over the weekend will only get to the mid 50s. We may see 60 degrees on Monday of next week, but temperatures will remain cool for much of next week.

Blame the jet stream. Over the weekend a classic “Omega Block” sets up as a bubble of high pressure gets wedged in the center of the US -and a trough of low pressure on each of the coasts.


That trough of low pressure over New England will lock in the northerly flow of cold air overhead keeping our temperatures on the cool side for much of the week.

By the way, it’s known as an Omega Block because the resulting flow pattern in the jet stream resembles the Greek letter ‘Omega’. The result will be below average temperatures and bouts of rain over the next seven to ten days.


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Gusty winds and occasional showers today; After a break in the rain on Wednesday, steady rain showers return to end the work week

WEATHER HAZARD: A WIND ADVISORY is in effect for today. Winds may gust 40 to 50 mph this afternoon into this evening.

If you’ve been outside you already know the cold front has crossed east-central Ohio and our weather this morning is much much different than yesterday. It will remain a cloudy, cool and breezy day with a few scattered showers around just to make it yuckier.

A Wind Advisory will go into effect today at noon and continue through 7:00 pm this evening. Winds out of the southwest will stay up there 15 to 20 mph. Gusts could be as high as 50 mph at times this afternoon.


The main concern today will be the combination of wind PLUS the fact that the ground is pretty well soaked from the recent rain. The soft wet ground coupled with the potential for strong gusty winds this afternoon may cause additional power outages today due to weakened trees and power poles.


We will also deal with scattered showers passing through – especially through mid afternoon. These will taper off as we get toward the evening hours. Today’s FurtureCast radar gives us an idea of how the showers will play out today:


Temperatures today will struggle and I don’t see many neighborhoods getting out of the upper 50s for the afternoon high. Our communities in southern portions of the Tuscarawas Valley might MIGHT see 60 degrees but I wouldn’t count on it.

It should remain mostly cloudy overnight and that’s a good thing. If skies were to clear overnight frost would be an issue. As it is, we’ll drop to the low 40s generally. Our coldest areas in the northwest corner of Tuscarawas County – Sugarcreek, Baltic, Ragersville, and as far north as Strasburg – may dip to the upper 30s.


High pressure visits briefly on Wednesday to bring us a dry day with a sun and cloud mix. It will still be a chilly May day despite the added sunshine under a northwest flow. Thankfully, it won’t be as windy but you will still notice a chilly breeze.


With the occasional peaks of sun tomorrow, it will likely be the nicest day of the week. Our next weather system approaches Wednesday night from the southwest spreading rain showers across the region by Thursday morning.


Overnight model runs have trended a track of this system a little further north which keeps widespread rain showers going through the majority of the day. Temperatures won’t do much better than the low 60s and with gusty winds returning it will make a very rainy and raw day.

Friday doesn’t look to be any better. We may get a short break in the steady rain during the morning but that will be short-lived. Rain showers will return during the afternoon and continue Friday night.

Forecast confidence drops off as we approach the weekend. Low pressure slowly begins to exit northeast of the region but occasional light showers look to remain a threat during the day on Saturday.


Sunday looks to be the better day of the weekend, but that’s not saying much. Rain showers will finally pull out but clouds will stick around with the occasional peak of sun.

Temperatures through the weekend will remain well below average for the first part of May – mid 50s will be the best we can muster over the weekend.

The bulk of our rainfall this week will be with the steadiest rain on Thursday and Friday. Spotty showers on Saturday will add a couple of hundredths. All total we could end up with 1.25 inches to 1.75 inches of rain over the entire period.


There is some light at the end of this cold and rainy tunnel, though. After a chilly weekend and a cool start to next week, warmer temperatures will return as we head toward the second week of May.



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MONDAY: Severe thunderstorms will be possible today

A warm and humid atmosphere coupled with an approaching strong cold front will provide the conditions for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms across east-central Ohio this afternoon.

The only factor that may limit severe thunderstorms this afternoon will be the lack of instability. The rain showers and clouds this morning will help keep the sunshine this morning to a minimum which in turn, will help keep instability at a more manageable level.

The Storm Prediction Center has portions of our area in a Level-3 (Slight Risk) out of 6. The likelihood of severe thunderstorms today increases as you travel east.


Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from today’s storms. Large hail and heavy rainfall are also possible in these storms.


The risk for a few tornadoes is low – BUT NOT ZERO.


There may certainly be a few rumbles of thunder embedded in any of the morning rain showers, but the main threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will not arrive until this afternoon along the front – from around 1:00 PM through 5:00 PM this afternoon.

Hi-res guidance from this morning’ model runs show how the radar might play out through the day:


Both short-term high resolution models depict a similar scenario with storms developing and moving east this afternoon. The timing is a bit later from the NAM model, but the general idea is pretty much the same.

The bulk of today’s activity should move east of the Tuscarawas Valley by 5/6 pm.

A reminder that forecasts can and often do change as more information becomes available. Have a dependable way to receive any possible warnings today. Better yet, have two ways to get warnings. OUTDOOR TORNADO SIRENS ARE NOT A RECOMMENDED WARNING METHOD.

If you work outdoors, keep a close eye on weather conditions this afternoon and be prepared to seek shelter.

I’ll post updates here throughout the day as needed. You can also get my updates on Twitter and our Facebook Page.

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Tuscarawas Valley weekend outlook

iday will bring a cooler day with temperatures this afternoon in the low 70s in most of our neighborhoods. Clouds will gradually increase through the day with chances for a shower later this evening and a possible rumble of thunder around or after 8:00 PM tonight.

Hi-res futurecast radar for today through midnight:


No severe weather in east-central Ohio today but chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will be present in southwest Ohio late today and tonight.


A few thunderstorms overnight tonight could get feisty here. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat across east-central Ohio but moderate size hail may also develop in the stronger cells. Any thunderstorms tonight could also be efficient rain producers.

Unsettled but warm weather looks to dominate our weekend weather with a series of systems bringing the threat for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. The better day over the weekend will be Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds and a lesser chance for showers and storms. Temperatures will warm to the mid 80s with a touch of mugginess in the air.


Although it won’t be raining continuously through the weekend, the rain will add up over the course of time. We can expect around a half to three-quarters of an inch over the next 72 hours.

A much stronger cold front will cross east-central Ohio at some point on Monday that continues to signal the potential for strong/severe thunderstorms. Details remain a bit sketchy yet and I’ll continue to monitor the setup through the weekend.


This will be a potent front and it will bring a much cooler pattern through the first week of May.


Have a great (and safe) weekend!

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