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Warm temperatures through Easter Weekend but showers and thunderstorms will threaten outdoor plans

High pressure will continue to dominate our weather on this Good Friday. The result will bring a bit less cloudiness today than we saw yesterday. With the extra sunsine, temperatures will also be warmer across east-central Ohio with most areas reaching the low to mid 70s here in the Tuscarawas Valley.

04-14-ndfd-day1-temps

SATURDAY
A warm front will approach and cross east-central Ohio and, while it will bring even warmer temperatures on Saturday, it will also bring the chances for a few showers and thunderstorms.

I think the best chances for any rain or storms will be during the afternoon right along the frontal boundary as it crosses. Even then, any showers will be spotty and they certainly won’t last all day. The best dynamics for any stronger storms will be low so any thunderstorms will stay below severe criteria.

The bottom line for Saturday? Expect a spotty shower or even a thunderstorm just about anytime anywhere especially during the afternoon hours.

Temperatures on Saturday will really take off behind the warm front. Here in the Valley we can expect most neighborhoods getting to the 80-degree mark.

04-14-ndfd-day2-temps

Our chances for a shower or storm will wane as we approach sunset and we should stay dry Saturday night. Temperatures will remain mild overnight – not getting much cooler than the low 60s by early Easter morning.

EASTER SUNDAY
The best chance to stay dry will be Easter morning in the Tuscarawas Valley. I don’t think you’ll have any weather problems during sunrise or early morning services. If you have plans for an egg hunt with the kids, it would be best to get it in before lunch time.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be better on Sunday afternoon with a cold front. Cooler and drier air from the north will run into warm moist air creating a recipe for thunder during the afternoon.

04-14-gfs-60hr-ptype

While instability will not be high enough to support severe storms, upper-level shear will be strong enough to support a few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds. These would be more likely west of the Valley as the front crosses earlier in the afternoon. The threat for widespread severe storms is pretty low, but it’s entirely possible of a storm or two to get a little rambunctious.

04-14-spc-day3-outlook

There will also be plenty of moisture available so a brief downpour wouldn’t be out of the question.

Temperatures Easter Sunday will top out in the upper 70s ahead of the cold front. Chances for showers and storms will diminish toward evening.

NEXT WEEK
High pressure builds back in on Monday and sunshine returns. Temperatures will take a hit behind Easter’s cold front with highs Monday afternoon probably in the upper 60s.

After another fine spring day on Tuesday, our weather will turn more active as we head into mid week with an unsettled weather pattern setting up to bring showers and storms back to the forecast.

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Tuscarawas Valley Easter weekend weather preview

Easter weekend is one of those holidays that families get together to enjoy. And weather has a big impact on how we spend the day. In those regards I’ve taken some time today to fill everyone in on what we might expect over the Easter weekend.Our weather around Easter varies dramatically depending on when the holiday occurs. It’s perfectly logical to accept the fact that early Easters sometimes bring snow and wet, cold rain.

Our weather around Easter varies dramatically depending on when the holiday occurs. It’s perfectly logical to accept the fact that early Easters sometimes bring snow and wet, cold rain and generally not-so-nice weather. When Easter falls later in spring we tend to have mild and pleasant weather.

This year Easter Sunday will be one of the warm ones but unfortunately, it is also looking wet and stormy.

Many folks have Good Friday off work or maybe work only part of the day. It will be a nice day to have off. High pressure will remain in control of the weather here in east-central Ohio and that means sunshine. Temperatures will also be quite nice running in the low 70s Friday afternoon.

04-12-gfs-60hr-ptype

Good Friday will be a good day.

A warm front lifting through east-central Ohio on Saturday will bring the warmest day of the weekend. It will be a cloudier day, however, and a few spotty showers will be possible as the front makes its way through the region.

04-12-gfs-84hr-ptype

Saturday won’t be a washout by any means, but there will be the chance for a shower or two – especially during the morning. A spring thunderstorm may also accompany the front.

Temperatures behind the warm front will soar to the upper 70s and it will turn noticeably humid. We’ll remain quite mild Saturday night with increasing cloud cover.

On Easter Sunday low pressure will travel east across the upper Great Lakes dragging a cold front west to east across Ohio. With plenty of warm moist air in place out ahead of the cold front, showers and thunderstorms will become more likely as the day progresses.

04-12-gfs-84hr-ptype

WILL STORMS BE SEVERE?
With abundant moisture and warm air, it wouldn’t take much for any storms on Easter to get rambunctious. As of today, the risk for severe storms is pretty low, but I don’t want to take severe possibilities completely off the table yet. It’s still quite a way out and I’d like to wait and see if all the ingredients can come together.

At the very least, I think we can count on rain becoming more likely during the afternoon with thunderstorms also being a good possibility. If you plan on going to early morning services, you should be okay. Any egg hunts or outdoor activities with the family should be okay if you get them in during the morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be more of a threat during the afternoon/evening.

Temperatures on Easter will be good too with most neighborhoods reaching the mid/upper 70s Sunday afternoon.

I’ll remind everyone that this is an EARLY FORECAST and future blog updates will likely bring changes. Timing of Sunday’s rain and storms, intensity, and rain amounts are still big questions. These will come into better focus as we get closer to the weekend.

JE

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Clear skies and a bright high pass will make it easy to see the ISS this evening as it crosses the Tuscarawas Valley

Mostly clear skies this evening will bring a great opportunity to view the International Space Station as it zips across east-central Ohio.

Go outside at 8:58 pm and face the northwest. That’s where the space station can be first seen this evening. It will travel nearly right overhead before finally dipping into Earth’s shadow in the east-southeast at 9:04 pm. It will be visible for just over 5 minutes here in the Tuscarawas Valley.

Use the map below as a guide to help get your bearings:

04-12-iss-map

This evening’s pass will be very bright and easy to spot. Even the kids will be able to see it with a little help.

How to Spot the ISS – What to Look For
Look for a bright ‘star’ or point of light moving very quickly across the sky. It will be moving faster than a commercial jetliner The space station has no strobe lights and it does not produce a contrail. There is no noise and it does not ‘twinkle’ or blink. Light from the station is reflected light from the sun. The station presents a fairly large point of light – much bigger and brighter than a star.

For the best results, observers should look in the direction shown at the time listed. Because of the speed of an orbiting vehicle, telescopes are not practical. However, a good pair of field binoculars may reveal some detail of the structural shape of the spacecraft.

How high is the ISS and how fast is it moving?
The International Space Station travels in orbit around Earth at a speed of 17,500 miles per hour (that’s about 5 miles per second!). This means that the Space Station orbits Earth (and sees a sunrise) once every 92 minutes! On average, the ISS orbits at about 220 miles above the Earth.

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Showers and storms visit today with a weak cold front; Cool and pleasant stretch of weather through the rest of the work week

LOCAL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible today with a weak cold front. Dry weather will return through the end of the work week. The next chance for rain returns over Easter weekend.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER: There is a low chance for a strong thunderstorm today. Widespread severe weather is not expected.

TUESDAY
A weak cold front will cross east-central Ohio today and bring us the chance for scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two. Other than this morning, I think most of the day will be dry but the chance for rain or thunder will increase again during the mid to late afternoon and continue into this evening as the slow-moving boundary crosses the region.

Here is how hi-res modeling ‘thinks’ the radar might look like through midnight:

04-11-hrrr_2017041109_ref_cleveland

Instability will be a little higher near the front. Still, it’s not all that impressive but it will be enough for a couple of garden variety thunderstorms to get going. The Storm Prediction Center says that chances for a strong thunderstorm will be better east of I-77.

04-11-spc-day1-outlook

Some storms today will be capable of producing moderate rainfall, but generally total rainfall from today’s system should amount to a quarter of an inch or so.

04-11-ndfd-36hr-precip

With the extra clouds around today, temperatures will not be quite as warm as yesterday and most neighborhoods should max out in the low 70s this afternoon.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
The cold front travels southeast and clears east-central Ohio later tonight allowing an impressive ridge of high pressure to dominate our weather through the end of the work week. Temperatures on Wednesday will drop back to around average values – mid 60s. With high pressure in control, sunshine will rule the day.

The sunshine and dry weather will continue on Thursday with temperatures warming to the upper 60s. Mostly sunny again on Friday with afternoon temperatures near 70 degrees.

EASTER WEEKEND
A warm front will lift north across Ohio on Saturday setting up a southerly flow and bringing in warm moist air back to the region Saturday afternoon. It will also introduce a low chance for a shower but most of the day should remain dry. Temperatures will warm back to the upper 70s under mostly cloudy skies.

The better chances for showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Easter Sunday with the next cold front. It’s still a bit far off yet so timing of the front is still in question. Depending on the time of day, some of the storms on Easter could get a little roudy should the front approach and cross during peak heating. This will need to be monitored for severe possibilities, but for now, I would just figure on storms at some point on Sunday.

Temperatures on Easter will be warm ahead of the cold front with most areas in the upper 70s once again.It will cool off about 10 degrees or so on Monday behind the front.

It will cool off about 10 degrees or so on Monday behind the front but high pressure will return sunshine to the region.

RIVER FORECAST
Elevated river levels are forecast to remain through today but levels will steadily decline as we go into the weekend.

04-11-nws-hydergraph

JE

 

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Warm and windy today with rain and thunder chances returning on Tuesday; Dry and seasonal through the end of the work week

LOCAL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: Southerly flow and high pressure will keep warm temperatures and dry conditions through Tuesday morning. A weak cold front will bring the threat for rain and thunder Tuesday and Tuesday night. Somewhat cooler temperatures and dry weather will continue through Friday before another surge of warm air arrives for the weekend.

WEATHER HAZARDS: No severe weather is expected over the next five days.

MONDAY’S WEATHER
If you liked how Sunday played out weather wise, you’ll really love today. High pressure will maintain mostly sunny skies and a pretty stiff southerly breeze will help push temperatures to around 80 degrees this afternoon across east-central Ohio.

04-10-ndfd-day1-temps

Those southerly breezes will get cranking a bit today and turn gusty with some gusts around 30 mph at times. At least it will be warm.

Clouds will begin to increase tonight ahead of our next weather system although we will remain warm and breezy overnight. Temperatures won’t cool off much more than the upper 50s in most neighborhoods.

By the way, sunset tonight in New Phila is at 8:00 pm. It will be the first 8:00 pm sunset here since last August 31.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A weak cold front will make it’s way to western Ohio by Tuesday morning. Clouds will spread out ahead of this weak system as well as scattered rain showers along the boundary.

04-10-gfs-30hr-ptype

The atmosphere is rather dry so it will take some time for moisture to overcome. Even then, I don’t expect much in the way of rain with this weak system except for right along the frontal boundary where we may see an uptick in shower intensity briefly. It’s a slow-mover so any heavier rainfall will be more likely late in the day. This would also be the best chance for a thunderstorm or two.

With the additional cloud cover tomorrow, temperatures will hold back to the low 70s.

The cold front clears southeast of the region by early Wednesday morning allowing skies to clear and sunshine to break out once again. Temperatures behind the front will drop back to about average with afternoon highs in the low 60s. It’ll be a cooler day, but still very pleasant spring weather.

A little cloudier on Thursday but still dry. Temperatures will also rebound a bit and most neighborhoods will see mid to upper 60s. The clouds thin and bring a sunnier day on Friday with highs right around 70 degrees.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
A warm front approaches late in the day Friday but this far out, timing is difficult to nail down with any certainty. With the boundary around, we will need to bring in the low chance for showers on Friday. Thunder would also be possible with this, but nothing severe looks likely at this point. A couple of disturbances will ripple through Saturday and Sunday to keep rain and thunder chances in the 30% to 50% range Saturday. Finally, a cold front will maintain chances for showers and storms on Sunday.

LONGER RANGE
After Sunday’s cold front, temperatures trend toward a below-average regime through mid month. Remember, though, average temperatures for our area in mid April are in the low to mid 60s, so while the trend is cooler, still not cold by any stretch.

04-10-ecmwf-15day-temps

The second half of April looks to bring above average temperatures to our part of the country, so any cool temperature trend will be short lived.

04-10-noaa-814day-temps

RIVER FORECAST
Elevated Tuscarawas River heights at New Philadelphia should continue to steadily fall this week.

04-10-nws-hydrograph

JE

 

 

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Low impact snow showers end this afternoon; Spring weather resumes for the weekend

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: Snow and rain showers ending this afternoon will give way to sunshine and a warming trend through the weekend. Our next chance for rain will be on Tuesday with a weak cold front.

WEATHER HAZARDS: There is no hazardous weather expected during the next five days.

TODAY (FRIDAY)
As expected, low impact periodic wet snow showers are underway this morning across the Tuscarawas Valley. These will diminish as we make our way toward lunch time and should exit by this afternoon.

Hi-res FutureCast radar through midnight:

04-07-hrrr_2017040711_ref_cleveland

This will have little impact on east-central Ohio and the Tuscarawas Valley area except for some wet roads. Little or no snow accumulation is expected today.Later this evening and tonight we will begin to see skies clearing west to east. With this cold northwest flow and clearing skies, temperatures will dip to around 30 degrees in most neighborhoods tonight. If you have plants started outdoors, you’ll need to take measures to protect them from frost/freeze tonight.

It will remain breezy today, though, with a stiff northwest wind through the afternoon. This will keep wind chills in the mid 20s this afternoon. Those gusty winds will die down this evening.

Also this evening and tonight we will begin to see skies clearing west to east. With this cold northwest flow and clearing skies, temperatures will dip to around 30 degrees in most neighborhoods tonight. If you have plants started outdoors, you’ll need to take measures to protect them from frost/freeze tonight.

REMINDER: If you travel north today, keep in mind that much more snow fell in northern Ohio counties. Winter weather advisories are in effect for several snow belt counties and many ended up with 4 to 6 inches of wet snow up that way. I’ve read reports this morning from Cleveland NWS with as much as 7 inches in parts of medina County. Snow will have more of an impact on your travel the farther north you get.

BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEEKEND
What can I say – it will be a gorgeous spring weekend across the Valley. A little cool on Saturday with afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s, but with clear blue skies and bright sun, it will be beautiful.

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Sunday will be the warmer day of the weekend with afternoon temperatures climbing to the low 70s. There will be a few more clouds around, but still, plenty of sun to go around.

NEXT WEEK – SPRING RESUMES
Monday will bring increasing clouds to the region but we will remain dry. Temperatures on Monday will likely get to the mid 70s. Some neighborhoods in far southern portions of the Valley will see upper 70s.

A weak low pressure system crosses the upper Great Lakes and drags a weak cold front across east-central Ohio on Tuesday bringing a cloudy day and maybe a few light spotty rain showers. Current computer guidance suggests the best chance we see any rain from this system will be during the morning hours as the front crosses. It won’t be an all-day rain.

04-07-gfs-102hr-ptype

This will quickly exit east Tuesday night allowing high pressure and sunshine to return Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be a few clicks cooler behind the front, but still very nice and springlike weather will follow.

Temperature ensembles show that once we get through this little cold and snow period today (Friday), temperatures rebound quickly over the weekend. Will this be the last time we deal with snow?

04-17-ecmwf-15day-temps

Have a great weekend and enjoy the sunshine!

 

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Colder air arriving today will support snow showers tonight; Nice weekend coming up

THURSDAY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: Rain showers today will bring falling temperatures this afternoon with rain changing over to wet snow tonight. Sunshine and warming temperatures will arrive over the weekend.

WEATHER HAZARDS: Additional rain showers today may cause minor flooding issues with elevated creeks and streams as well as ponding on roads and highways. Snow showers overnight coupled with gusty northwest winds may reduce visibility tonight and early Friday morning.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY
A short break in the rain showers this morning as a dry slot makes its way across east-central Ohio. Rain will become more common this afternoon and temperatures that started out in the mid 50s this morning will begin to decline. All-in-all, today will not be a nice spring day.

FutureCast simulated radar through midnight:

04-06-hrrr_2017040611_ref_cleveland

Yes, that’s snow showers wrapping in late tonight. Temperatures will turn cold enough late tonight to support wet snow showers across the region. The snow plus increasingly gusty northwest winds may cause visibility problems if you happen to be out on the road tonight. Some gusts will approach 30 mph tonight through Friday afternoon.

RAW, BLUSTERY, COLD, SNOWY FRIDAY Snow showers and rain/snow mix will likely continue into Friday morning as well as those gusty northwest winds. Temperatures on Friday won’t do much better than 40/42 degrees for the afternoon high, so again, not a very nice day tomorrow either. Wind chills in the morning will be in the upper teens and won’t get much more than the mid 20s during the day.

04-06-26hr-wind-chill

SNOW IMPACTS: While it will snow tonight and Friday, snow impacts in April are not nearly the same as they are in January. First, temperatures will hover right around freezing; Second, ground temperatures are still quite warm.

The bottom line is snow would have to fall at a very intense rate in order to cause enough accumulation for travel problems on the road. It will snow enough for the snow to accumulate on hard surfaces – vehicles, decks, and grassy areas – but it should not accumulate on the roads much. The main roads will be wet and less traveled roads may see some slushy spots, but generally, this will be a low impact snow event in our area.

HOW MUCH SNOW WILL WE GET? This has the potential to bring an inch or two of snowfall to the east-central Ohio region. How much of that sticks in any one particular area is a tougher call. I would expect an inch to accumulate on grassy areas as a general guideline. Again, roads should stay in pretty good shape.

04-06-ndfd-36hr-snowfall

National Weather Service odds for an inch or so of snow tonight through Friday:

04-06-nws-snow-odds

Of course, if you plan on heading north closer to the snow belt counties, you’ll run into more snow accumulation. Even then, I wouldn’t expect to see much of a travel impact on the main highways.

WEEKEND WEATHER
We’ll get rewarded for the lousy Thursday and Friday. Precipitation, whether rain or snow, ends quickly Friday late and we’ll begin to dry out Friday night. The cold air responsible for this mess will quickly exit too and temperatures will begin a robust recovery on Saturday. High pressure will assume control to bring abundant sunshine Saturday AND it will continue through Sunday.

Temperatures will warm to the mid 50s Saturday – and to the low 70s on Sunday. That snow everyone is moaning about will be just a memory.

NEXT WEEK
The warm temperatures will continue with a vengeance on Monday will upper 70s a pretty good bet across east-central Ohio. It will turn cloudier, though, ahead of the next rain maker that will arrive on Tuesday. Still, temperatures will remain quite warm into mid week with highs in the low 70s Tuesday. We drop back to the low 60s by Wednesday with dry conditions.

JE

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6:30 PM Severe Weather Update for East-Central Ohio

6:30 PM UPDATE:
The radar is lighting up in western Ohio with numerous showers and thunderstorms this evening. Some thunderstorms are severe and contain gusty wind and large hail. All of this activity is moving east, so thunderstorms will arrive here late tonight.

04-05-630p-radar

The risk for severe thunderstorms here in east-central Ohio is low – but not zero. Some storms tonight could be on the strong side with moderate hail and gusty wind. Conditions here are not supportive of tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center keeps east-central Ohio and the Tuscarawas Valley area in the “Marginal” risk category in the latest update.

04-05-spc-outlook-3

TIMING: Hi-resolution guidance suggests storms will arrive between 9:00 pm edt and 11:00 pm edt - depending on how far west you are located. Simulated radar tonight through 10:00 am edt Thursday:

04-05-hrrr_2017040520_ref_cleveland

Widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected. However, it is best if you have a reliable way to receive NWS Advisories and Warnings – NOAA Weather Radio or a good phone app. Relying on outdoor tornado sirens is not an acceptable warning method.

For the rest of this week’s Tuscarawas valley weather details, please read today’s blog.

JE

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Springlike and warm today; Showers and a few thunderstorms roll in tonight with rain, gusty wind for Thursday

WEDNESDAY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: Dry and warm weather conditions are expected for much of Wednesday ahead of the next low pressure system that will bring showers and thunderstorms tonight. Rain and raw weather will remain over east-central Ohio through Thursday with much colder air arrives Thursday night. After a brief cold spell Friday and Saturday, temperatures will warm Sunday and Monday.

WEATHER HAZARDS: Although widespread severe weather is not likely, a few thunderstorms this evening and tonight could be on the strong side with gusty wind being the main threat. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall is also possible tonight. About an inch of additional rainfall is expected tonight through Friday that may bring minor flooding issues to the region.

WEDNESDAY’S WEATHER
Today will actually turn out to be a fairly decent spring day across east-central Ohio. A mixture of clouds and sunshine as well as a southeasterly flow will help push temperatures across the region to near 70 degrees this afternoon.

04-05-ndfd-day1-temps

However, the great weather today is not going to last long. Our next low pressure system is marching eastward today and as it approaches, the threat for showers as well as a few thunderstorms will increase this evening.

High and mid level clouds will increase late in the day – a signal that some not-so-nice weather is on the way for tonight and Thursday.

There remains some differences with the models regarding the timing of tonight’s rain and storms, but the general trend has slowed up the arrival of the system. The slower arrival will help put a damper on the risks for severe thunderstorms in east-central Ohio. With that said, there will still be enough strong wind shear present tonight even though instability will be weakening after sunset.

As a result, the threat for any severe thunderstorms in the Tuscarawas Valley area will be pretty meager. The Storm Prediction Center has rolled back The Tuscarawas Valley, as well as all east-central Ohio, to the ‘Marginal Risk’ category in response to the waning threat for severe storms tonight.

04-05-spc-day1-outlook

A Marginal Risk means that there could be a couple of strong thunderstorms with gusty wind and moderate hail, but widespread severe storms with damaging wind is not likely. Strong to severe storms in western Ohio should peter out as they travel east and into less favorable conditions. Radar snapshot from the hi-res NAM model at midnight:

04-05-nam-22hr-sim-radar

The higher threat for severe weather today and tonight will be in southwestern Ohio.

While the threat for severe storms here is minimal, there is a concern for another good dose of rain with this system. The potential is there for a half to an inch of rain tonight through Thursday and this on top of the already saturated ground from recent rainfall could lead to more nuisance flooding issues locally.

04-05-nws-72hr-precip-forecast

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY – RAIN FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES
Tomorrow is not going to be a very nice day. It will be a raw day with periodic rain showers throughout the day and it will turn windy as rain wraps around behind out eastward-moving storm system. Temperatures, while warm in the morning, will take a downward slide during the day.

04-05-gfs-36hr-ptype

By tomorrow night, colder air will have wrapped in and it will turn cold enough for rain showers to transition over to wet snow. I think we will see enough snow that it sticks to open fields and grassy areas, vehicle tops, decks, etc. Roads and highways are warm so I’m not anticipating any travel issues. Some of our less-traveled roads may get slushy.

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Temperatures Thursday night will dip to near freezing and we won’t warm much more than the upper 30s on Friday. Total snowfall should add up to around an inch in our area.

04-05-nws-54hr-snowfall

NWS odds for at least an inch or so look pretty decent for east-central Ohio:

04-05-nws-snow-odds
WEEKEND WEATHER
The cold spell will be brief. The colder air quickly shifts east on Saturday as high pressure nudges in to bring plenty of sunshine for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday will still be a bit cool with highs in the low 50s. Another day of bright sun on Sunday will help nudge temperatures back to the mid/upper 60s. It will be a gorgeous weekend to be outside.

NEXT WEEK/LONG RANGE
The warm and mostly sunny weather will continue to start the work week. Sunshine and a southerly flow will push temperatures into the low 70s on Monday. But rain will return to the forecast by Tuesday with our next weather system followed by another dip in temperatures mid week next week.

04-05-ecmwf-15day-temps

JE

 

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After a short rain break this afternoon and tonight, showers and thunderstorms will resume late in the day Wednesday

TUESDAY’S WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: A few leftover showers this morning will shift east of the region in the afternoon. We’ll have a brief dry period this afternoon through Wednesday followed by the next low pressure system that is expected to spread showers and thunderstorms across east-central Ohio Wednesday night. Rain chances will continue through Friday with drier weather and sunshine returning for the weekend.

WEATHER HAZARDS: Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Friday may raise the potential for flooding. Flood Watches may be issued for portions of east-central Ohio. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts is the primary threat but large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

TODAY (TUESDAY)
A few lingering showers this morning but these will taper off around lunch time today as low pressure slowly advances northeast and into Canada. Clouds will remain with us through much of the day with the best chances for any peaks of sun coming this afternoon and evening.

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Temperatures today will remain mild, although a bit cooler than yesterday’s 70 degrees and most neighborhoods should max out in the low 60s this afternoon.

It will turn breezy, though as mid level winds mix down to the surface. West wind will ramp up 14 to 18 mph with some gusts maybe to 30 mph.

We stay dry overnight with those gusty winds dying down. Temperatures will cool off to the low 40s overnight across the Tuscarawas Valley.

WEDNESDAY – STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
Dry weather will continue into Wednesday and I think tomorrow will be fairly decent for most of the day. Sunshine and clouds look to hang in there through at least mid afternoon and temperatures will warm nicely to the upper 60s to near 70 in some spots.

Our concerns for stormy weather increase late in the day as low pressure makes its way to the Great Lakes region. This will be a slow mover and it will bring a couple of weather concerns for us here in the Tuscarawas Valley over the next few days.

The first is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Upper level shear values will be high enough to support damaging wind gusts with tomorrow evening/night thunderstorms. Timing will be an issue – if storms happen to form early in the afternoon and evening, chances will be better for severe thunderstorms. BUT, if they happen to arrive overnight it will be more difficult for severe thunderstorms to get going.

The bottom line is we’ll need to monitor the situation tomorrow during the late afternoon and evening for thunderstorm development. For now, the Storm Prediction Center has portions of east central Ohio – including the better part of the Tuscarawas Valley – in the “Marginal Risk” category for severe thunderstorms.

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As of this morning I don’t think there is a huge risk for severe storms here but, depending on if storms can get going early enough in the day, a few strong storms could visit us here in the Valley. I’ll continue to monitor the situation but for now, I’ll go with a low risk for any severe thunderstorms.

The second weather issue – and the more likely issue that will affect our area – will be the potential for heavy rainfall Wednesday night and persistent rainfall over the next couple of days. With the recent rainfall we’ve had, additional rain may bring moderate flooding issues and we’ll need to monitor the situation for flood potential.

04-04-wpc-84hr-precip

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
Low pressure will remain the dominate weather factor through the latter part of the week. As mentioned earlier, flood watches are a possibility through the period. Colder air will bring the threat for wet snow mixing in Friday.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK
High pressure finally returns to dry things out over the weekend. A mix of sun and clouds look likely Saturday although temperatures will remain on the coold side with highs in the low 50s. More sun on Sunday and temperatures will recover back to the low/mid 60s Sunday afternoon.

JE

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