Scattered showers and storms today; Challenging weekend forecast

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today with the crossing of a cold front. None of these look to be severe but a few storms could produce gusty winds. Any thunderstorm wind gusts today should stay below severe criteria.

Odds for stronger storms today will be well to our east, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

Not everyone will see rain today and it will certainly not be a wash out. Here is how the hi-res model paints the radar through midnight tonight:

Temperatures across the Valley will top out in the upper 70s to near 80 in some spots this afternoon. All in all, it will be a typical spring day.

The front should be east of the region by this evening and the threat for showers and storms will diminish. The front will settle along the Ohio River Valley tonight before reversing direction and lift back north on Friday as a warm front.

As the boundary crosses the region tomorrow we will need to keep odds for showers and maybe some thunder in the forecast again tomorrow especially north of I-70. Similar to today, showers and storms should be scattered. Nothing severe looks likely.

Temperatures on Friday will be highly dependant on where the frontal boundary actually is at any given time. And, there will be dramatic differences in areas ahead and behind the front as it lifts north through the day.

The NAM (North American Model) highlights the sharp temperature gradient Friday afternoon as a warm front lifts through Ohio.

We may not see temperatures get out of the mid 50s here in the Valley until mid or late afternoon. With the front slowly making its way north through the day, showers and storms will once again be possible just about anywhere.

Our quasi-stationary front will continue to affect our weather through the weekend as it continues to wabble north and south over Ohio. As long as this boundary remains in close proximity showers and thunderstorms will continue to threaten.

Temperatures through the weekend will be highly dependent on where the boundary is at any particular time. Areas north of the front will be cool while those south will be dramatically warmer.

Guidance suggests that the Valley should end up in the warm sector of the front on Saturday and temperatures here should be around 80 or so. Sunday’s temperatures are a crap shoot.

If you have weekend plans all I can say is don’t take any forecast today as a solid weather forecast. Don’t look at today’s weekend forecast and assume you’re okay. Rain odds and well as temperatures through the weekend will depend on just where this frontal boundary decides to be at any given time. No weekend forecast today and Friday – no matter who makes it – will be accurate.

Unfortunately, our frontal boundary is going to hang around through at least the first half of next week. As a result, chances for showers and storms will continue through Wednesday with this thing hanging around. It will weaken some as time moves forward and the temperature gradient will not be as sharp. But the boundary will be enough to keep at least low chances for rain at times in the forecast.

Temperatures, however, should remain at or just above average through the period.

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