The many folks that follow my blog already know this but… drastic changes from our hot and humid weather pattern this week are about to unfold. Today will be the last really humid day for a while.
The computer models are in good agreement showing a cold front crossing east-central Ohio tonight through early Friday morning. Behind the front, cooler and much drier air will replace the moist airmass we’ve been suffering under the past week. We’ll be left with sunshine, temperatures in the low 80s and much less humidity through the upcoming weekend.
Today will be quite warm and muggy, though. Not quite as hot as Wednesday but still pretty toasty with afternoon temperatures this afternoon in the upper 80s. Dew points in the low 70s will make it feel like the mid-90s.
High-resolution modelling suggests two rounds of showers and storms today. The first will be mostly scattered associated with an upper-level disturbance late this morning and through the afternoon. The biggest threat with these will be torrential rain but gusty winds may also accompany these storms.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until midnight tonight for the potential of torrential rainfall of 1.50 to 2.50 inches.
The simulated radar product from the short term hi-res model highlights the scattered nature of today’s activity:
Our cold front will sink through Ohio overnight and showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead and along the boundary as it crosses. Since the front will cross at night when the atmosphere is more stable, the threat for severe thunderstorms is low – but not zero. A few isolated storms may produce gusty wind and hail. With plenty of moisture to work with, heavy rainfall in thunderstorms is something to be mindful of.
The Storm Prediction Center has all of the state flagged for a marginal risk today.
Showers and storms will quickly exit with the boundary by mid-morning Friday. High pressure will build in during the afternoon leaving us with very pleasant weather conditions late in the afternoon and evening. Gone will be the miserable humid air we’ve been dealing with for so long.
WEEKEND FORECAST
If there is one word to describe the weather this weekend it has to be beautiful. We see very few July days with practically no humidity and pleasant temperatures. But that will be the case Saturday AND Sunday.
High pressure will provide for abundant sunshine and blue skies. Dew points will drop back to the 50s and daytime temperatures will peak at around 80 degrees on Saturday – low 80s on Sunday. We get a well-deserved break in the heat and humidity for a change.
With nighttime lows dipping to the upper 50s we’ll be able to open the windows and give the A/C a break (and the electric bill).
NEXT WEEK
The high pressure at the surface responsible for this nice break will shift south and east setting up a more southerly flow. Temperatures and humidity will start to creep up again on Monday but still, not nearly as intense as this week. Temperatures should get to the mid 80s.
A backdoor cold front may approach by Tuesday. This looks pretty dry in today’s modelling and I’ve kept the forecast dry for now. High pressure will quickly regain control through midweek keeping the area dry and sunny.
