Unsettled weather pattern through Wednesday; Drier conditions return Thursday

Monday will bring a mostly dreary day to the region. There may be a couple/few breaks in some spots but otherwise, clouds will dominate for a good part of the day. Odds for a shower or even a thunderstorm will be best in the afternoon and early evening as temperatures warm to around average for today. Still, with little in the way of a trigger, coverage will be pretty spotty. There is very limited instability and shear overhead so anything severe is not likely.

The threat for showers and storms will decrease this evening and tonight with the loss of daytime heating.

Hi-res futurecast simulated radar for this afternoon and evening:

Unfortunately, Tuesday will be a near copy of today – chances for showers and storms will be greater in the afternoon and evening. Odds for rain or storms in any one location will be a little better tomorrow as an upper-level low shifts to the east. Afternoon temperatures will top out about the same – low 80s across the area.

Showers and thunderstorms will linger later into the evening Tuesday but we should see things settle down after 10:00 PM. No strong or severe storms are expected.

A slow-moving and weakening cold front will approach and cross east-central Ohio late on Wednesday. Today’s runs of the primary computer models argue with the timing of the front. The European brings the front through much sooner than the GFS. I went with the slower GFS solution that brings showers late in the day. Hopefully, tomorrow’s runs will present a clearer picture.

Regardless of the exact timing, showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the front on Wednesday tapering off Wednesday night as the boundary exits east.

It will remain fairly muggy through midweek but not nearly as humid as we’ve seen in weeks earlier. Those dew points will drop behind the Wednesday/Thursday front.

Dry weather with a mix of clouds and sun will highlight Thursday and Friday. Below average temperatures are likely on Friday behind the cold front. Most neighborhoods will be lucky if they can get to 80 in the afternoon.

Forecast models keep us dry on Saturday but still on the cool side with afternoon highs in the upper 70s. Low pressure to the north will drag a cold front across Ohio on Sunday. With differences in timing between the models, it’s difficult to determine when precipitation returns.

I know I’ve been harping on this for a while, but the evidence is mounting for a cooler than average regime as we end July and begin August. The Climate Prediction Center is now on board with the likelihood of a cooler temperature trend in their 8 to 14-day outlook.

Have we seen the last of the 90s? I would have to say it’s entirely possible and both the European and American climate models are in good agreement of a cooler trend.



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