High pressure will bring a mostly sunny day to east-central Ohio. And, quite uncomfortable as well. A warm front will lift through the region this morning setting us up in a more southerly flow this afternoon. Temperatures and dew points will trend upward and most neighborhoods should see highs hovering around the 90-degree mark.
As we heat up this morning the atmosphere will become moderately unstable. The high-resolution models hint of an upper-level disturbance riding through that will provide just enough of a spark for a few thunderstorms during the heat of the afternoon.
Thunderstorms this afternoon will be hit-or-miss so, I wouldn’t count on much activity for the Tuscarawas Valley area. Any thunderstorms will be quick-movers too.
SIMULATED radar from the hi-res model for today gives us a good idea of the isolated nature of today’s thunderstorm activity:
The threat of thunderstorms will peak during the mid-afternoon hours, then taper off as we get toward sunset.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected. However, any of the beefier storms could produce some non-severe wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall.
A similar scenario will set up again on Monday and scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly during the afternoon. A weak cold front is due to cross on Tuesday and bring much better odds for widespread thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has east-central Ohio flagged for a marginal risk for severe weather on Tuesday. This will likely change over the next couple of days. I will continue to monitor the prospects for severe storms and keep you updated.