Summery weather pattern with a threat for showers and storms this week

An upper-level low will pretty much set up shop overhead on Sunday. Despite this, instability will remain pretty lame and the best moisture flow is well off to the southeast. Precipitation odds should remain fairly low today. The only problem for east-central Ohio appears during the mid to late afternoon. An isolated shower or storm could possibly reach far enough southeast from Lake Erie but the odds or maybe 20% to 30% at best.

Futurecast radar through midnight:

Any activity that would happen to affect the region will die down quickly after sunset this evening. And we should keep dry overnight. Otherwise, we can expect a mostly sunny Sunday with afternoon temperatures around 84 degrees.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY
Our upper-level low will stay in place and additional moisture will wrap around the system for Monday. While the threat for showers and storms looks a tad better compared to Sunday, coverage will still be fairly scattered.

Expect more clouds on Monday with low odds for a shower or storm mainly during the heat of the afternoon.

By Tuesday our upper low gets nudged to the east as yet another upper-level low approaches from the west. Again, scattered showers and thunderstorms will threaten during the afternoon and early evening hours. Any showers or storms in the area will quickly exit Tuesday night.

Temperatures through the period should stay average-ish – 83/85 degrees for the afternoon highs.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
Dry conditions and fair weather will likely continue into Wednesday as upper-level high pressure scoots across the region. This system will also push a warm front into east-central Ohio. We will see dew points creep up as moisture flows in from the Gulf. We’ll see an uptick in temperatures and humidity on Wednesday will afternoon highs around 86/88 degrees.

Low pressure and an associated cold front will approach Wednesday night increasing the odds for showers and storms. The best chances for precipitation in east-central Ohio will arrive on Thursday as the storm system advances and the cold front crosses Thursday night through Friday time period.

There are some timing issues this far out, but should the storm system approach during the heat of the day on Thursday, severe thunderstorms may be something we might have to deal with. Severe storms are far from certain but right now they can’t be ruled out.

The whole system will be slow to move east keeping the threat for showers and storms going through the first half of Friday. We should begin to see improvements late Friday as high pressure builds from the west.

Somewhat cooler temperatures can be expected behind the front for next weekend. Temperature trend for the next 15 days from the European model:

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

  • SUNDAY: Severe thunderstorms are not expected
  • MONDAY: Severe thunderstorms are not expected
  • TUESDAY: Severe thunderstorms are not expected
  • WEDNESDAY: Severe thunderstorms are not expected
  • THURSDAY: Severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Monitoring.
  • FRIDAY: Severe thunderstorms are not expected

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