Tuesday Update: Severe thunderstorms, heavy rain possible this afternoon

A crossing low-pressure system will drag a strong cold front across east-central Ohio bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area today. A second storm system will cross on Wednesday.

Showers and a few rumbles of thunder last night and early this morning brought some moderately heavy rain to the area. Most areas received three-quarters of an inch and some spots well over an inch of rain.

We have a break in the showers and thunderstorms that moved through last night and early this morning. The big question today is whether we can manage enough clearing for a period long enough for the atmosphere to recover and destabilize this afternoon.

This morning’s guidance suggests that the atmosphere will become moderately unstable this afternoon which, if correct, would favor the potential for severe thunderstorms later today.

The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the area of highest concern a bit to the east today. This change from yesterday keeps the Tuscarawas Valley area in the marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms.

The primary threat is from the potential for strong wind gusts. The tornado threat is still fairly low, but it is a little higher than we normally see. An isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out.

The other concern today will be tropical downpours given the amount of moisture available for storms to tap into today. Storm movement will be pretty decent so they should move along at a fairly good clip – enough to prevent any serious flooding issues. Should multiple storms cross the same general area (training storms) that received heavy rain overnight, the risk of flooding in those locations will increase.

Today’s severe threats will be greater as you travel east into West Virginia and Pennsylvania where there is better odds or more substantial clearing this afternoon.

With that all being said, the threat for severe weather in any one spot in the Valley is fairly low today. While the risk here in the Valley is lower, it’s not zero.

REMINDER: All of this is dependent on whether clouds can clear and allow for some midday sun. Sunshine = bad today. Some sunshine is more likely in southeast Ohio this afternoon but it is unclear on how far north clouds can manage to thin out.

TIMING
Showers and thunderstorms will threaten just about everywhere during the day. The best chances for SEVERE storms will be highest from about 1:00 PM to 5:00 PM. Thunderstorm activity should begin to decrease by early evening as everything shifts east and out of our area. Scattered showers will, however, remain overnight.

Futurecast radar through midnight:

Note that this model does a fairly good job but it’s not perfect and always spot on correct. It does give us a fairly good idea of future trends, though.

PRECAUTIONS
Have a way to receive possible advisories and warnings and be mindful of changing weather conditions – especially after lunchtime today. Outdoor tornado sirens ARE NOT a reliable warning method in your home or business.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A secondary cold front will drop across east-central Ohio tonight keeping clouds and the slight chance of a few showers tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures, however, will be much cooler. When was the last time we had a day of low 70s this summer?

High pressure will build in for Thursday and Friday to bring the sunshine and dry weather back to the Valley. We’ll get a little taste of autumn with highs only in the mid 70s on Thursday. We’ll warm to the upper 70s on Friday.

I’ll do an update here and on our social media sites later should conditions change.

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