Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected with a series of crossing disturbances through midweek.
A wet weather pattern will get underway today as a warm front continues to slowly lift north through east-central Ohio this morning. Warm moist air will flow north behind the front raising our prospects for rain this afternoon as a series of disturbances ride along the front. Weak instability should keep the threat for thunderstorms fairly low today, but widespread rain showers will be likely across the region by this afternoon. With cloud cover and rain likely this afternoon, temperatures will struggle to do much better than the upper 60s.
Hi-res futurecast radar through 1:00 AM Tuesday:
Rainfall could be moderate to heavy at times. Rain continues overnight and into early Tuesday across the Valley but a slug of drier air will allow for a short dry period around midday. While a renegade thunderstorm will be possible during the afternoon, the main threat for thunderstorms will hold off until Tuesday evening/night as a cold front pushes through the region.
Instability will be limited but, combined with a good amount of low-level shear, sufficient enough for the potential for a few stronger thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of western Ohio under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather is a bit lower here in east-central Ohio but still high enough to warrant our attention.
The main threat comes from the potential for damaging wind gusts but a few tornadoes will also be possible – especially just to our west. Periods of heavy rainfall will also be possible today through Tuesday night.
Keep up with the forecast from a reliable source today and Tuesday. The severe outlook shown above is based on today’s timing. This will need to be watched closely. Should the timing change to an earlier frontal crossing, the area of higher potential would shift east into portions of east-central Ohio.
Shower and thunderstorm odds will decrease through the afternoon Wednesday as everything pushes east with the front and drier air moves into the region. Wednesday night should be dry once again.
Current model ideas show a pretty decent slug of rain for the region during the next 72 hours.
The month has been fairly wet so far and we really don’t really need another inch or two of rain. The recent dry weather has helped enough that widespread flooding should not be an issue. However, the regular flood-prone areas may see some isolated water issues.
The potential rainfall will need to be monitored. Anything close to a two to three inch forecast will raise flooding concerns.
Temperatures will be warmest this week on Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-70s. With with the cold front, we’ll have cooler temperatures on Wednesday.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
High pressure will try to build on Thursday but lingering moisture will make for a cloudy day with peaks of sunshine. A weak cold front will move across the region on Friday. There is not very much moisture with this one and we should stay dry here in the Valley. High pressure behind the front will bring dry and sunny weather through the weekend.
Temperatures through the period will be slightly below average making for a potentially beautiful autumn-like weekend.