Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected until a cold front crosses the region Wednesday. Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures are then expected under high pressure through the weekend.
Showers will diminish as a warm front clears east-central Ohio through mid-morning. The Tuscarawas Valley area will reside in the warm sector this afternoon. Showers will have much less coverage during the afternoon as a weak disturbance crosses the region.
The atmosphere is primed with plenty of moisture, so a shower or thunderstorm will certainly be a possibility this afternoon. Warm air aloft combined with weak instability will hold down the potential for strong thunderstorm development, but any storm today across the region could put down some heavy rain. Hi-res futurecast radar through 2:00 AM Wednesday:
Temperatures this afternoon will be the warmest of the week with an afternoon high in the mid-70s.
Our weather concerns then turn to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday morning as a cold front sinks south. While instability will not be very impressive, low-level shear WILL be fairly impressive. Winds at the 5,000-foot level will be cooking along at a good clip. Some early morning thunderstorms that happen to get tall enough will be able to pull some of that low-level jet down to the surface.
The Storm Prediction Center has our area highlighted for a marginal risk, but a slight risk category is just to our west. The primary threat, of course, is damaging wind gusts. but that low-level shear can also introduce some spin. As a result, there is a low threat for tornadoes as well.
There is little doubt that the threat of severe storms and tornadoes is higher to our west. Even though the threat is lower here, it is still enough to warrant your attention – especially since current timing brings the potentially strong to severe storms through at a time when most of us are sleeping. Make sure you have a reliable way to receive weather warnings tonight.
The other concern tonight is the potential for training – where thunderstorms line up and move over the same areas in succession. Should this trend be realized, localized flooding could be a problem with high rain rates in the strongest storms.
Total rainfall through Thursday morning looks to be a half to one-inch in our area. This is in addition to the rain we’ve already received so far this week.
The threat for severe thunderstorms will begin to decrease after sunrise as the front continues to travel southeast and exits the region. Rain will end from west to east through the day but clouds will hang around for the better part of the day.
High pressure will dominate our weather pattern Thursday through the weekend. The weather for Friday night football should be much better than the stormy conditions we saw last week. Expect sunny and dry conditions through the period with seasonal temperatures.
The mid-range temperature trend indicates slightly above average temperatures as we close out September and begin October.