Tuesday morning update for the severe weather potential this afternoon

Showers and thunderstorms will roll through the area today and tonight with the passage of a cold front. Mainly dry and warm on Wednesday as an upper-level ridge builds in.

NOTE: There are important changes in the forecast for today. We will need to be weather aware for the potential of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Tuesday will feel more like a mid-summer day with a warm and humid airmass in place. Dewpoints across east-central Ohio are unusually high this morning. Along with the elevated humidity, we have an unstable atmosphere in place. All that is needed to complete the recipe for thunderstorm development is a trigger. That will come around mid afternoon with a cold front.

Sun today will be a bad thing. Our potential for severe thunderstorms later today will be dependent on the amount of sun we manage to get. Breaks in the clouds will allow for more sunshine and the more sun we get, the more unstable the atmosphere will become.

TIMING
The front is located north and east of Ohio early this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead and along the front as it sinks southeast through the day. While a renegade shower or storm can’t be ruled out early this afternoon, we will remain mostly dry and warm here in the Valley for the better part of the day.

According to our hi-resolution guidance, the main line of thunderstorms will approach our area around 4:00 PM. By 8:00, the strongest activity should be south and east of the Valley. That 4 PM to 8 PM will be the window for severe thunderstorms.

Hi-res futurecast (simulated) radar:

THREATS
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has all of the east-central Ohio region highlighted for a slight risk today. A slight risk is a medium category on the severe threat scale.

All severe threats are in play today – including a low risk for tornadoes. Granted, it’s a low tornado risk but there is a threat none the less. Any tornado threat greater than zero should get your attention.

The highest threats will come from high wind and hail. The SPC has our area in the 15-percent contour for both wind and hail.

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are not much of a concern. The main line of storms should move through fairly quickly and any pockets of heavy rain will be brief.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
Thunderstorms will end after 8:00 PM leaving a few lingering showers as the cold front exits and stalls south of the region. Weak high pressure will build overhead on Wednesday allowing for a short period of dry weather under a mix of sun and clouds. Despite the cold front, temperatures on Wednesday will remain near 80 degrees for the afternoon high.

REMAIN WEATHER AWARE LATER TODAY: As it is with most severe storms, not every neighborhood is guaranteed to experience severe weather this afternoon. But, every neighborhood has a chance for severe thunderstorms today. I’ll post updates as needed here on TuscWeather.net and on our Twitter Feed and our Facebook Page.

 

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