Summer weather continues through Tuesday; Big pattern change mid week

Our summer-like weather pattern will continue today and it will remain unseasonably warm through Wednesday.

Much like yesterday, sunshine with afternoon temperatures around 86 degrees can be expected today. A warm front to our north this morning keeping a warm and humid airmass in place over east-central Ohio. We will also include a slight chance for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm today due to moderate instability developing in the afternoon heat.

 

Conditions won’t change much for Tuesday. With high pressure in control, we can expect another unseasonably warm October day with plenty of sunshine.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
The warm humid weather pattern across the region will finally begin to break down on Wednesday. Low pressure will develop over Oklahoma and travel east into the Great Lakes region. As it approaches western Ohio late in the day on Wednesday. The low will drag a strong cold front across Ohio Thursday morning. Much colder air will overtake the region and bring big changes to our temperatures here in the Valley.

Most of Wednesday will be sunny, muggy and warm again but clouds will begin to thicken up during the latter part of the afternoon. Odds for showers will begin to ramp up Wednesday evening ahead of the front and rain will become likely Wednesday night.

Things turn interesting early Thursday. There is an abundant amount of moisture associated with our cold front but with a tropical system (Michael) moving into the Gulf states, it may steal some of that moisture. In any event, expect showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday with the front. The majority of the heaviest rain should keep south of our area.

GFS model idea for Thursday. Precipitation amounts remain in question depending on the interaction between low pressure in the Great Lakes vs the tropical system along the mid-Atlantic coast.

CAVEAT: There is some model disagreement regarding the speed at which Michael lifts across the eastern US so refinements to the forecast regarding the potential for heavy rainfall is likely.

Today’s data shows a low potential for anything severe Wednesday night. While upper-level shear would support strong winds, instability will be weak given the nighttime timing. Still, I’ll continue to monitor for any severe weather that might come our way.

Regardless of the amount of rain we can expect, this will be a pattern changing weather system. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be downright chilly compared to early this week. Temperatures on Thursday will be warmest in the morning, probably in the upper 60s. Cold air will rush over east-central Ohio through the day and temperatures will dip to the mid-40s Thursday night.

High pressure will build back in over the region on Friday. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will be even chillier with afternoon highs not much better than 56/58 degrees.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK
Goodbye summer. Our weather will be much much different over the weekend. Saturday looks dry but cool with temperatures in the mid-50s for the high and low 40s for nighttime lows. A reinforcing cold front looks to cross on Sunday bringing back the prospects for showers.