Morning sun gives way to clouds and rain; First snowflakes Saturday night?

Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain chances return with a pair of cold fronts tonight and Saturday. Rain and snow chances continue Saturday night and part of Sunday with another reinforcing cold front.

Clouds are already beginning to move in from the west this morning as high pressure shifts off to the east. We should have a fair amount of sun during the morning but those clouds will gradually thicken this afternoon in response as cold front number-one approaches.

We should stay dry across east-central Ohio today. Our odds for rain showers will increase this evening with rain becoming likely after midnight with our cold front.

For those folks heading out to a game this evening, I suspect we should remain dry as area football games get underway, but a light shower or a few sprinkles may try to creep in during the second half. Southwest wind will be a little breezy, so those low 50s are going to feel chilly.

The odds for showers will increase after 10:00 PM. Here’s a look at thi simulated radar product from the hi-res model for 9:00 PM:

A few spotty showers are likely to hang around Saturday morning as the front sinks into southern Ohio. It will remain cloudy through the morning but there may be a little clearing in the afternoon with some spotty sunshine at times.

Our second – much stronger – cold front is approaching from the northwest. Winds out of the northwest will gradually pick up ahead of this one Saturday afternoon and it will turn windy. Gusts may reach 20 – 25 mph at times.

 

I expect to see another period of gusty rain Saturday evening as this second stronger front goes through. Maybe even some thunder? Simulated radar at 5:00 PM Saturday:

Temperatures behind the front both aloft and at the surface will cool behind the front. And, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some graupel or ice pellets or (GASP) snowflakes mixing in with this Saturday night. Temperatures dropping to the 33/35 degree range would certainly support that.

 

Scattered showers will linger into Sunday morning. Some snowflakes may even mix in early Sunday – especially in northern parts of the Valley.

Showers look to end around lunchtime with gradual improving weather in the afternoon.

Sunday will be chilly, though. Temperatures won’t warm much more than the mid-40s for the afternoon high. We get another shot of freezing temperatures Sunday night as clouds clear out under building high pressure.

NEXT WEEK
A large area of high pressure will maintain dry and sunny conditions through much of next week. Sunshine on Monday will warm temperatures to mid-50-ish. A weak cold front will cross Tuesday night but this has very little moisture to work with. I think we stay dry with this one but it will knock temperatures back a bit. Temperatures should drop back to the low-50s for Wednesday and Thursday.

NOVEMBER OUTLOOK
The NWS Climate Prediction Center released their updated November outlook yesterday. Our climate and extended range models have been trending toward a warmer than average month lately so I tend to generally agree with this one coming in with slightly warmer than average temperatures.

This doesn’t mean it will be 60 degrees and sunny all the time. Remember, this types of forecasts only indicate the probability of above or below average temperatures for the period. Our November average temperature in New Phila is 42 degrees. So, slightly warmer than 42 for the average monthly temperature.

The CPC indicates that there are no clear signals for above or below average precipitation for November.

 

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