Weather Edge for Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Periodic snow chances are expected through Thursday night with a series of crossing disturbances. High pressure will bring dry conditions with scattered sunshine through the weekend.

There isn’t much in the way of changes to the forecast since yesterday’s update. Decent odds for a snow shower or two will remain during the morning with a passing disturbance. Snow showers will exit the east-central Ohio region after lunch time. Until then, we can expect to see an inch or less of additional snow accumulation.

TOTAL SNOWFALL projections from the hi-res model indicates we can expect an addition inch or snow of snow through Wednesday.

We should stay dry this evening and tonight. Temperatures will remain well below average this afternoon and most areas will see an afternoon high around 32°.

Dry weather will continue into Thursday morning. Another disturbance will push a weak cold front across the region tomorrow and once again, snow showers will become likely in the afternoon and evening.

3km NAM at 4:00 PM Thursday: Next item of interest is a snow maker that arrives just after lunch Thursday. Not a huge deal, but this could deposit a quick inch of wet snow & lead to a slick evening commute.

The front will move through pretty quickly and moisture is limited. Accumulation looks to be much like today’s with most neighborhoods ending up with another inch.

Odds for snow showers will lessen late in the evening becoming more isolated around midnight. I’ll keep a slight chance for light snow going through 5:00 am Friday morning.

Dry weather and varying sunshine will visit as high pressure builds and remains in place over the northeast US through the weekend. Temperatures will remain cold on Friday and Saturday behind Thursday’s cold front. But, some signs of warmer temperatures will arrive on Sunday and we will finally get above freezing.

There remains some uncertainty with the much-advertised winter storm system that will develop over the weekend. Some of the modeling has started to show a trend slightly to the north. I’m still thinking that high pressure over the northeast will help suppress the system and keep it south of our area. Still, odds for snow will need to be increased Sunday night and Monday for those areas south of I-70.

The energy responsible for the storm will come ashore in southern California today. Once that happens, sampling can begin and those data can be injected into computer models. We should begin to get a better handle on this thing on Friday. Until then, everything is just speculation.

This does have all the ingredients of a good winter storm. Whether it shifts far enough north to affect east-central Ohio remains to be seen.



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