Mild temperatures today then turning colder again for the weekend

Dry conditions and milder temperatures are expected today. A cold front will result in light scattered showers late tonight through Friday morning. Cool seasonal temperatures will continue through the weekend.

A storm system will travel through the upper Great Lakes today and it will lift a warm front through east-central Ohio. Clouds will persist today but we should stay dry at least through the daytime hours. Warm southerly air will bring our afternoon temperatures up to around 50° today.

Scattered rain showers will move in from the west this evening with the associated cold front. Most of our neighborhoods will likely get in on some rain after midnight. There shouldn’t be a lot of rain with this system and I don’t expect a couple of hundredths will add to our local flooding issues.

Colder air will arrive behind the front and we’ll see rain showers transition to snow on Friday. Again, the scattered nature of precipitation and lack of significant moisture will keep any local accumulation non-impactful. I wouldn’t expect to see anything more than a dusting of snow – a half inch at best. Temperatures tomorrow will start out warm but decrease through the day as that colder air invades.

Drier air and high pressure will follow late Friday afternoon bringing an end to any snow. Skies will clear out Friday night setting our area up for a pretty nice day on Saturday. Although it will be a chilly day with afternoon temperatures in the mid-30s or so, at least we’ll get into some sunshine.

I am keeping an eye on a system that will likely stay south of the region Saturday. The GFS (shown below) keeps it well south but the European tracks it just a bit farther north. Should the Euro have the right idea, we might have to introduce snow showers into the Saturday forecast in later updates. For the time being, I’ll stay with the GFS and keep Saturday dry.

Confidence wavers on Sunday with the next system running through the Ohio Valley. I’ll keep a dry but cloudier day in the forecast for now then bring in low odds for a few snow showers late Sunday night. Whether or not this actually happens will depend on the track and strength of the next disturbance. Today’s model runs keep it pretty weak and the models are undecided on a track. So it goes without saying that confidence is not what one would call stellar. Still, my gut says this isn’t a big deal and doesn’t warrant anything more than slight/low odds for a bit of snow.

Regardless of Sunday night, high pressure will bring dry and uneventful weather back to the region for Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures look to remain in the mid-30s Monday and Tuesday warming to the upper-30s by Wednesday.

The next serious system I’m keeping a close eye on is next Wednesday. It’s quite a way out yet, but guidance is honing in on a strong low passing just south of Ohio. There are a lot of ‘ifs’ but this is a pretty formidable system and, depending on the track, could be the focus for some challenging winter weather – including freezing rain and snow.

It’s an interesting feature and no way can any specifics be wrung out this far out, but I did include the mention of wintry mix precipitation in the extended forecast. We’ll just have to wait and see how this plays out in the modeling for now. But, it does have my attention.

Temperatures are forecast to remain slightly colder than average into next week.



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