A quick update this Friday afternoon just to keep folks informed of the weekend weather. First, we have no issues on Saturday. High pressure will provide for a mostly sunny day, so you can run the car/truck through the car wash. It will be a chilly day, though, with temperatures in the mid 30° area.
JUST SOME EARLY THOUGHTS ABOUT SUNDAY
Recent model runs today have indicated a trend toward a slightly stronger system on Sunday. Earlier forecasts for Sunday kept snow totals pretty meager, but we may have to bump snow totals up a bit should this stronger trend continue.
The northerly track of the system still looks good. That means that most of the snow/rain will keep to northern Ohio counties. However, with it looking a little stronger, we would still see some snow from this – just not as much as those areas to the north.
BUT, I’ll caution. There are other factors at play here that will bring a potential variety of winter precipitation.
One factor I’m watching is slightly warmer air arriving on Sunday afternoon. Currently, snow would be the most likely precipitation type during the morning. Temperatures will warm to the upper 30s in the afternoon, so snow would change over to a wintry mix, sleet, then rain. Freezing rain would also be possible as snow/sleet/rain gets underway in the afternoon. Eventually, everything will change back to snow towards Sunday evening and temperatures cool.
Then, we have those folks who only focus on snow amounts. At this point, it’s ludicrous to even try to go down that road. With snow, rain, sleet, then snow again, how does one figure that out? If I HAD to say, I’d go with an inch or two. Then, just accept the criticism when it doesn’t work out.
There will likely be snow at a couple of times through with this system on Sunday, but rain, slightly above freezing temperatures and the possibility for a period of sleet will skew the accumulation amount.
The northerly track also means that communities – say around Dover and northern Tuscarawas County – would end up with more snow than those south of New Philadelphia.
The bulk of this potential mess will shift off to the east by Monday morning leaving us with just low odds for a scattered snow shower Monday afternoon.
This is by far not the final word on the Sunday/Monday forecast. I’m simply giving you an early heads up at what we might be looking at on Sunday. The forecast will likely evolve further should strengthening continue (or not) to trend in the modeling. For now, just be aware that there are decent odds that our Sunday could bring a variety of winter impacts.
I’ll do a detailed forecast tomorrow and post it sometime in the afternoon. The forecast should come into better focus with the Saturday morning runs.
