Today will be an active weather day for the Valley so I’ll keep this brief and to the point. There is an Enhanced Risk (3/5) for severe thunderstorms today for our area. An Enhanced Risk means that numerous severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly this afternoon into early evening.
It is not often we see an Enhanced Risk from the SPC for our area. Slight Risk is a much more common risk here, so this warrants your attention.
The main threat this afternoon will come from damaging straight-line wind (58 mph or better) in thunderstorms. Large hail (1″ or better) is also possible. There is also a lesser, but a threat none-the-less, for tornadoes. Brief heavy rain is always a threat in thunderstorms but today’s storms will be cooking and move through quickly. There is not a big concern for flash flooding.
Wind is wind. It doesn’t matter much if wind damage comes from a tornado or straight-line wind. The damage is still the same. So don’t get too hung up on the tornado threat.
Showers are likely this morning as a warm front lifts through east-central Ohio ahead of our storm system. Guidance suggests that these showers will exit the area by lunchtime followed by a warm and dry afternoon. There remains a question regarding the possibility of early afternoon sunshine. Any afternoon sun this afternoon will only serve to increase instability so sun today will be a bad thing. IF we remain cloudy for a good part of the afternoon, the threat for severe storms will be lower – not zero, but lower. Temperatures this afternoon will warm to around 70° or so this afternoon.
Regardless of the amount of sunshine, it will become breezy with south winds around 10 to 15 mph and gusts near 25 mph. Thunderstorms will likely develop by mid-afternoon to the west as a cold front approaches the region. I can’t rule out the possibility of a spotty thunderstorm early in the afternoon.
The main line of potentially severe thunderstorms will develop and move east-to-west across the Valley from around 4:00 PM to 7:00 PM. This line will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated tornadoes. FutureCast Radar from the hi-res model gives us an idea of what we might expect the radar will look like through 2:00 AM Monday:
Remain aware of the weather today – especially this afternoon and early evening. Have a plan and know where your safe place is. Have a dependable way to receive updates and warnings. Outdoor tornado sirens are not an acceptable warning method. (A weather radio or smart phone warning app is a much better warning solution.)
I’ll have updates throughout the day here if needed. You can also keep up with the latest on our Twitter feed (@tuscwx).