Published: 8:01 AM 06/24/2019
Edited 11:37 AM 06/24/2019 updated SPC threat map
Edited 12:20 PM 06/24/2019 to include updated SPC threat map – Enhanced Risk
An area of showers and thunder will lift north through east-central Ohio this morning. These are the result of a warm front moving through the region. They will not last long and the bulk of morning rain should lift out of the Valley by mid-morning.
Warm, moist and unstable air will move into the region this afternoon behind the morning warm front. Temperatures this afternoon will warm to the low 80s and it will be considerably more humid compared to the pleasant weekend conditions. This unstable air mass will provide the fuel for thunderstorms later in the day as a cold front crosses the region.
This morning’s hi-res models show a break from precipitation during the afternoon. Clouds look to clear enough to even allow for sunshine today. The sunshine will work to our disadvantage by destabilizing the atmosphere ahead of the approaching cold front.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon and move through east-central Ohio early this evening. Some storms may be severe. Strong wind is the primary threat later today but hail and an isolated tornado are also possible. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted parts of east-central Ohio for the ENHANCED Risk (3/5) today. [Updated map 12:21 PM]
NOTE: Portions of Tuscarawas, mainly the southeast section, are included in the Enhanced Risk area.
THUNDERSTORM THREATS – ENHANCED AREA
- Damaging wind gusts of 58 mph or higher – 30%
- Quarter-size hail or larger – 5%
- Tornado – 5%
Although prolonged widespread heavy rain is not a big issue with today’s storms, quick bursts of heavy rain are possible. There are many areas that are just now beginning to dry out after last week’s rain. I’ve included a threat for flooding for today mainly in those areas that are now just recovering. Brief periods of heavy rain would have a bigger impact on these communities.
Modeling indicates the best opportunity for severe storms here in the Valley will be from 6:00 PM to 9:00 PM. The main threat for showers and storms should diminish after 9:00 PM as everything moves east of the area. Showers and thunder may linger to 11:00 PM but these should be non-severe.
Hi-res FutureCast through 11:00 PM:
THE REST OF THE WEEK
The good news is that today looks like the only day we can expect any significant rain this week. Tuesday will be the most pleasant day of the week with mild temperatures and low humidity. Temperatures and humidity will creep up through the rest of the week.