Quiet weather for most of the week; Heavy rain possible over the weekend

Mainly dry weather with colder temperatures is expected for the first half of the week. Variable sunshine is likely Monday and Tuesday with daytime highs around 40° and nighttime lows in the upper-20s. Temperatures will turn colder on Wednesday behind a cold front with afternoon highs in the upper-20s locally.

Tuesday high temperatures

A couple of weather systems late in the week will bring the potential for heavy rain and flooding issues to east-central Ohio.

The first round of moisture is associated with a weak low pressure system arriving from northwest Canada Thursday night. The majority of moisture from this system looks to stay mainly in the northern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a strengthening low will be getting its act together in the southern Plains Friday morning. Precipitation from this system will begin spreading in from the southwest Friday evening as the low moves toward the Ohio Valley.

Although there are model differences with regards to speed and track of the system, all resources point to an abundant moisture plume accompanying this storm system. Rain total estimates range in the 2.5″ – 3.0″ range for the east-central Ohio region. That’s high enough to be concerned with high water issues and future model runs will need to be monitored closely.

NWSWPC TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES Friday through Sunday. 2.5″ to as much as 3″ of rain will be possible in east-central Ohio.

The north/south track of the low will also have implications of precipitation types as the system pulls away on Sunday. Stark differences in precipitation types are possible in Ohio over a relatively short distance. A more southerly track would result in a rain/snow mix to possibly all snow on Sunday locally. A more northerly track through Indiana would bring all rain and warmer temperatures.

GFS MODEL PROJECTION for Saturday night. As of today, our area looks to remain warm and rainy but wintry precipitation will not be all that far away. The exact track of the parent low will have major implications with regards to precip types on Sunday.

High pressure would return Sunday night/Monday to bring dry conditions back to the area.



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