Dry and warmer for Thursday; Rain moves in on Friday and continues through Saturday

High pressure that brought clear skies and cold temperatures last night will shift east today. Warm air from the south will begin to move in over east-central Ohio pushing temperatures to the mid-40s this afternoon. Increasing moisture will accompany that warm air and clouds will gradually increase as we go through the day.

A warm front will lift north through the area tonight. Warm air will continue to pump into the region overnight and temperatures will not drop off more than 4°-5° tonight.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
Odds for rain showers will spread northeast into Ohio early Friday reaching the Valley by mid-morning. Multiple rounds of rain will continue to impact our area Friday night through Saturday night. The whole mess should exit the area by Sunday morning.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s update, the model trend has shifted the swath of the highest rain totals with the storm north and west of us. That trend continues today. Still, this will bring a hefty slug of rain to the Valley over the next few days. Generally, an inch or two of rain looks like a good bet locally.

NWSWPC TOTAL RAINFALL Friday through Sunday afternoon.

While there are some disagreements on rain location and intensity, the modes are in good agreement that the heaviest rainfall will impact the area Saturday night as the storm’s cold front moves through. Strong wind with the front is anticipated and gusts to 50 mph are possible.

The good news is that although this will bring a lot of rain, it will be spread out over the course of 24/36-hours. That will reduce the risk of widespread flooding. We will see a rise in water levels along the Tusky and other streams locally. Hydrographs at all our local gauges keep water levels below flood stage as of Thursday morning.

And, more good news for us here in the Valley: This will likely be an all-rain event. All of the wintry precipitation associated with this storm system is projected to remain well to our north.

EUROPEAN MODEL depiction of our storm system pulling away to the northeast by Sunday morning. If this turns out to be the case, wintry precipitation associated with the storm will keep well north.

Temperatures are going to take off through the period. Friday’s highs will get to the mid-50s. We’re likely to break the all-time record high for Saturday (01/11). The current record is 63° set in 2018. We have 67° in the forecast for Saturday.

Sunday will bring a return to dry weather to the Valley. Daytime highs will be about 20° or so cooler behind the system’s cold front. That’s still warmer than average.

NEXT WEEK
No signs of winter through mid-week next week. Temperatures will quickly recover to the 50s Monday through Wednesday. Rain chances will return for the first part of the week, however.

There are some signals that a shift toward somewhat colder temperatures will occur by mid-month. Note that the current ensemble temperature forecast doesn’t show any harsh cold – these are still warmer than average. But, a trend toward a cooler regime is a possibility.

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