Published 12:01 PM EST 02/16/2020
- Widespread rain likely Monday night and Tuesday with a cold front
- Dry weather through early next week
- Above-average temperatures to end February
SUNDAY AND MONDAY:
My hopes of seeing any sun today locally are pretty low. A weak cold front draped over Lake Erie will continue to dissipate this afternoon keeping cloud cover and overcast skies here in the Valley. There is some thinning farther north and closer to the boundary but that’s unlikely to make it this far south before sunset this evening.
The air closer to the surface is pretty dry and radar returns showing light showers in the area is mainly virga (rain evaporating before it reaches the surface). Temperatures this afternoon should reach 40° or so. Those clouds will break some overnight and Monday allowing for some occasional sunshine tomorrow. With a bit of a brighter day, temperatures will warm to the low/mid-40s.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
An area of low pressure will travel into the Great Lakes region Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures Monday night will buck the normal trend and actually warm overnight but we will also see increasing odds for rain showers. Widespread rain is likely to overspread the area by midnight or shortly thereafter.
The system’s cold front sweeps through our area on Tuesday with rain showers likely continuing. Cooler/drier air behind the cold front then brings decreasing rain chances with rain ending by sunset. Temperatures Tuesday morning in the mid-40s will trend down to the upper-30s by sunset and continue to fall to the upper-20s by Wednesday morning. Any snow associated late Tuesday and early Wednesday is likely to stay north of the Valley.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY – QUIET AND DRY
The long-range looks to be dominated by a large strong upper-level ridge of high pressure over the central US. It will also initiate high pressure at the surface keeping a dry and mostly sunny forecast going forward through the weekend. As the system transitions eastward, temperatures locally will start to warm back to the mid-40s by the end of the workweek
Those folks wishing for a good snowstorm will be greatly disappointed in the long-range outlook. Warmer than average temperatures can be expected as we approach the end of February.
Precipitation, however, looks to remain at or just slightly above normal.