Wet and continued mild on Tuesday; Snow showers likely Wednesday night

Periodic rain is expected through Wednesday with crossing low pressure. Colder weather and snow showers are then expected to end the week.

While we won’t see steady rain today (Tuesday), expect off-and-on light rain showers throughout the day. The highest odds for showers in any one spot will be during the afternoon. Our area will also remain on the warm side of this system and temperatures this afternoon look to top out in the upper-40s to just shy of 50° locally.

The rain will taper off locally this evening and tonight as support and moisture decrease aloft. All told, we should end up with less than a tenth of an inch of rain for today.

FUTURECAST RADAR through 1″00 AM Wednesday

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!
The next storm system will move out of the Tennessee Valley into the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday. As I mentioned in yesterday’s update, the track of this system continues to inch southward with each run of the models. I still think we will remain on the warm side of the system until the system’s cold front crosses Wednesday night. After a break in the rain Tuesday night, rain chances will again ramp back up as moisture spreads across east-central Ohio ahead of the front.

The cold front sweeps across our area Wednesday night ushering in colder air. Light rain showers will mix with rain before changing over to all snow showers Wednesday night. Snow showers then continue into Thursday morning as moisture wraps behind the system. Chances for snow showers will diminish through the afternoon as the system pulls off to the northeast.

EUROPEAN MODEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Snow showers and gusty wind will likely wrap behind our storm system as it pulls east and north.

This can bring a couple/three inches of snowfall to northern Ohio counties but we should see way less here in the Valley. While it’s a little too early for specifics, as the track of the system indicates with the morning model runs, we’ll see less than an inch locally. I’ll post an update with specifics late tonight or early Wednesday but generally speaking, we’re not likely to see any impactful snow amounts in the Valley. [NOTE: Adjustments in the snow amounts are possible.]

NWS [NDFD] PROJECTED SNOWFALL through Friday AM

Winter Storm Watches have been issued this morning for portions of NORTHWEST OHIO where there could be significant snow. Be aware of weather conditions if you need to travel anywhere in northern Ohio – and particularly NW Ohio – over the next couple of days.

Winds out of the west will become quite gusty Wednesday night through Thursday with a tight pressure gradient along the frontal boundary. Expect occasional gusts of around 30 mph at times. This will also have an impact on wind chills as the cold air moves in. Wind chills on Thursday can be in teens. SIngle-digit wind chills are likely Thursday night.

NAM3k (North American Model) PROJECTED WIND CHILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON: I think these are a bit too cold but it does indicate painfully cold wind chill values.

HOW LONG DOES IT STAY COLD?
This will bring a legit shot of cold for about three days locally. Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will generally be in the upper 20s for daytime highs and upper-teens for nighttime lows. A warming trend will start to push temperatures upward on Sunday with highs in the mid-30s.

After the weekend we flip right back to the warm pattern we’ve been stuck in all winter.

Does this mean the cold temperatures and snow this week will be the last? Well, maybe. I wouldn’t count out any cold at some point in March – or snow for that matter. But, the long-range modeling trend generally indicates our warm winter pattern will continue for the time being.

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