Tuscarawas Valley Weather Update 03/27/2020: Heavy rain and strong storms possible over the weekend

Rain will end early this morning with the passage of a cold front. Rain will then return to the region late today and periodically continue into Sunday morning.

I’ve been occupied with other commitments the last several days and it’s been difficult to do a local weather update until today. But, today we should be back on track and the Tuscarawas Valley’s most comprehensive weather forecast will resume a normal schedule during these trying times.

The weak front that brought showers to the area last night has pushed off to the south this morning. Drizzle, mist, and fog this morning will gradually mix out by the afternoon as drier air moves into east-central Ohio from the north. While it won’t be a bright sunny day we will get into some clearing in the afternoon and some intermittent sunshine. Temperatures today will top out at around 60°.

The next system that will bring active weather to the Valley over the weekend is already showing up on radar over Illinois and Indiana this morning. This system will travel eastward along that stalled out boundary that is stalled to our south. That frontal boundary will reverse course and drift back north as a warm front tonight and Saturday before becoming stationary in northern Ohio Saturday afternoon/evening.

Showers will spread south to north into the Valley tonight as that front advances. Saturday will start out wet with showers and perhaps even a couple of thunderstorms as the front lifts north through our area. Some heavier downpours will be possible at times especially in the morning.

FUTURECAST HI-RES RADAR through 5:00 AM Saturday

The models are a bit undecided on how far north that boundary will get tomorrow afternoon but I’m betting that it will reach close to the south shore of Lake Erie. If my hunch is correct, we will see some dry periods locally Saturday afternoon. I’ve kept a moderate (30%- 40%) chance for a shower in any one spot going through Saturday afternoon so while it looks dry for most of the afternoon a shower can’t be completely ruled out.

Total rainfall locally tonight through Saturday will run about 0.50″ to 1.00″.

The threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday night is beginning to be a bit more concerning. There look to be two opportunities for strong storms in eastern Ohio – Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. The time period is just now coming into the range of the hi-res short-term models and I will continue to monitor the situation as things come into focus today and tonight. The concerns are with the potential for hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornadoes.

The SPC has portions of our area highlighted for a Slight Risk (2/5) of severe thunderstorms Saturday evening through early Sunday morning.

In addition to the severe threat, heavy rainfall and training storms will bring the potential for localized flooding. Local streams and the Tusky will respond to this heavy rain and we will probably see high water levels once again. Sunday will also bring gusty south winds that will shift west. Gusts can be in the 30 mph – 40 mph range. Temperatures on Sunday will be warmest in the morning then fall during the afternoon behind a cold front.

NAM3k (North American Model) Wind gusts Sunday afternoon.

Odds for showers and storms will decrease Sunday evening. High pressure will build in over east-central Ohio bringing dry and fair weather back to the Valley for Monday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler through mid-week.

Thanks for reading the Valley’s most comprehensive weather forecast. I’ll have updates throughout the weekend as our potential for severe weather and heavy rain develops. Have a great Friday and stay safe!

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