Saturday Weather Update: Details are beginning to emerge about our early-week winter storm

Posted 1:00 PM EST Saturday, November 28, 2020

I hope everyone in the Valley had a wonderful Thanksgiving despite the gloomy weather. Today and Sunday will be much nicer with no weather issues to deal with. This local weather update will focus on the winter storm that we’re expecting to start the new work week and launch us into the month of December.

HIGHLIGHTS

• A winter storm is likely to bring wintry weather impacts to east-central Ohio and the Tuscarawas Valley Monday through Wednesday
• Precipitation will start out as rain accompanied with gusty wind on Monday, then transition to snow showers Monday evening/early Tuesday morning
• Snow showers and gusty wind will continue through Tuesday
• Snow showers depart late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Cold temperatures will remain for a few days.
• There will likely be changes in the forecast Sunday and Monday. If the weather is important to you, keep up with the latest from reliable sources.

THE SETUP
A storm system currently located in the southern jet stream over Texas and Oklahoma will travel east through the weekend and merge with a disturbance in the upper Midwest Sunday night into Monday. This will produce a strong storm system that will bring rain on Monday and eventually snow showers on Tuesday to our area.

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT IN THE VALLEY
Initially, we can expect rain showers to move into our area from the south early Monday morning. Temperatures on Monday will remain warm enough that all precipitation falls as a cold rain here. The wind will be gusty at times on Monday as well.

Colder air will then begin to wrap around the system Monday night and at some point rain will transition to snow showers. Snowfall will be heaviest in a northwest band of the storm system which, depending on exact placement of the storm, COULD lead to a brief period of heavy snow Sunday night. Confidence on this feature is low at this point in the forecast but it’s something I’m keeping an eye on.

Snow showers and gusty wind will likely continue through much of the day Tuesday.

Back here in our area, this does not look to become a big-ticket snow event. That doesn’t mean we won’t get any impactful snow. We will see some snow from this – perhaps enough to shovel and plow. That heavier band of snow I mentioned earlier will also factor into our local snow amount.

The system will slowly pull away from the region Tuesday night bringing an end to snow showers. Temperatures Tuesday night will be sharply colder and any slushy/wet areas will likely freeze. Slick spots are likely.

Dry conditions and cold temperatures are then likely through Friday. Another storm system will return precipitation chances to the Valley next weekend.

THE BIG QUESTION ON EVERYONE’S MIND – HOW MUCH SNOW?
I don’t generally issue a forecast for snow amounts until 48 to 36 hours ahead of a snowstorm. Yes, you can find specific numbers on social media and some weather apps, but that doesn’t mean it’s good information. I’m ALWAYS weary of exact snow forecasts if they’re more than 48 hours out. You should be too.

Models still disagree on some points but they are starting to paint a similar pattern. The heaviest snowfall looks to set up in northern portions of Ohio thanks to some lake effect enhancement. Keep that in mind if you have plans to travel north or west from the Valley on Tuesday. Here at home, much will depend on that questionable band of heavy snow Monday night/early Tuesday.

This will likely be the first snow event of the season so impacts on travel will be a concern. Snow accumulation on the roads will depend on snowfall rates. The heavier the snowfall, the more likely it will stick. That being said, I expect we’ll see enough snow that it will impact secondary roads. The main highways should generally be okay.

As of today, I think this is a 1″ to 3″ event, generally speaking. Slightly higher amounts (up to 4″ or so) are possible for areas along and north of New Philadelphia. This is a preliminary forecast and changes will be likely in the next 24 to 48 hours.

LOCAL IMPACTS
Snow-covered roads – especially secondary roads – will become increasingly likely on Tuesday. Any shush/wet surfaces will re-freeze Tuesday night as temperatures fall into the low-20s. Wind and blowing snow will also impact visibility in spots Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

As always, you can find updates here as they become available. I also do frequent weather updates on Twitter. Be safe out there.

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