Posted 10:00 AM Friday, February 12, 2021
A few snow flurries this morning are associated with a weak upper-level tough sinking south through east-central Ohio. We won’t see much more than a coating of light snow from this as it quickly exits to the southeast. Cloud cover will gradually thin some this afternoon and allow for filtered sunshine at times. Expect temperatures locally topping out at around 30° locally.
After a dry and uneventful night tonight, odds for snow showers will return to the Valley Saturday afternoon and evening as another little upper-level disturbance passes through the region. The bulk of moisture and support for anything meaningful will stay north of the region setting up mostly along the lakeshore. Back here in the Valley, light snow showers will be possible late in the day. Accumulation locally will again be light with most locations seeing less than an inch. Mainly dry conditions return for Sunday.
Temperatures through the weekend remain colder than normal but not horrible. We may actually break to the freezing mark on Sunday!
A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS NEXT WEEK?
While details continue to be uncertain, confidence in a disruptive winter storm early next week for parts of Ohio continues to increase with each model run. While details such as snow amounts and precipitation types are not locked down at this time, one would be wise to expect some challenging winter weather during the Monday through Tuesday time frame.
The models have been highly consistent in bringing a low pressure system out of the Gulf northeast into the Ohio Valley on Monday. What we end up seeing here in east-central Ohio will depend on many factors that just have not congealed yet. Variances in the track and strength of the system and how far north warm air aloft and at the surface can migrate will play a significant role in precipitation types and amounts.
If temperatures can remain cold as depicted in the European model suggests, precipitation will remain all snow. That would mean significant snow accumulation could be a problem. If warmer air aloft nudges further north as the GFS and Canadian models project, we would end up with much less snow but rain, freezing rain, and/or sleet would bring a whole other set of issues.
The bottom line at this point is that I’m confident that we will likely get disruptive wintry weather Monday and especially Tuesday. Exactly what that entails is just not known for sure. Yes, you can find many popular weather apps spitting out exact snow amounts but having weather information that may not be correct helps no one.
My take on this? Expect all precipitation to be snow on Monday. Tuesday may bring a wintry mix or something other than snow, and/or heavy wet snow. Whatever transpires, the system quickly exits to the northeast late on Tuesday. High pressure will bring a short dry period Tuesday night and Wednesday.
A second storm system will enter the region from the south Wednesday night into Thursday. Outside of having precipitation chances return to the Valley, confidence is low with regards to amounts and types. A quick look indicates warmer temperatures may be present which may mean issues with precipitation types. But let’s wait until we get through the Monday/Tuesday event before we start to focus on this second storm.
Thanks for reading the Valley’s only weather outlook dedicated exclusively to our area. I’ll keep you updated throughout the weekend on TuscWeather.net and the TUSCWeather app. Have a great weekend and be safe out there.