Sunday Afternoon Winter Storm Update – Snow amount adjustments

Posted 2:30 PM Sunday, February 14, 2021

If you read my morning update you’ll know that there was a northward trend of warm air aloft with our winter storm. Good snow forecasts can be very difficult with these storm systems coming up from the south due to warm air aloft overriding cold air at the surface. When warm air enters the picture, precipitation can fall as freezing rain and sleet.

The trend of that warmer air aloft getting a bit further north in the early morning model runs has continued with the afternoon runs. This will mean some adjustments with snow amounts for our area.

Basically, I nudged the 6″ – 9″ area a little farther north. Here is the latest snowfall map for our area as of Sunday afternoon:

Areas south of New Phila will have the best odds at seeing sleet mixing in with the snow Monday night. This does lower the expected amount of snowfall amount but increases the chances of sleet. There is still some uncertainty on how far north the warm air will reach.

The rest of the storm forecast remains pretty much on track. If you haven’t read my Sunday morning update you can read that here. The morning update contains timing and local impact information you’ll find valuable.

Updates will continue. Stay tuned.

 

 

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