Another warm spring day followed by chances for rain and t-storms on Thursday

With all of this warm weather lately, there are some folks out there anxious to start working on the garden. I would suggest that you hold off for a while. I know it’s tempting but despite the warm weather we’ve been having, planting now would probably be a costly mistake. Let’s look at the data.

I pulled temperature records for New Philadelphia going back about 23 years. The average last frost/freeze date for our area is May 1st. We’ve had frost/freeze temperatures locally as late as May 25th.

Don’t be fooled by this stretch of warm weather. We will likely see cooler temperatures arrive in mid-month. It is possible to have some nights where temperatures drop to freezing or colder so just wait a couple of weeks to be safe.

Since Tuesday was such a nice warm and sunny day we’ll do a repeat today and add a couple of degrees to the warmth. There can be a spotty light shower first thing in the morning as an upper-level disturbance moves through east-central Ohio. That disturbance will clear out quickly leaving us with a mostly sunny afternoon. Most places in the Valley will warm to around 80°.

Thursday will start out bright but we will see clouds increasing as we go through the day as a low pressure system approaches the northern Great Lakes. Chances for rain and thunderstorms will return to the Valley in the evening. Lift and instability will be weak so any thunderstorms that get going will be non-severe. Odds for rain and storms will diminish Thursday night as the low exits north of the Great Lakes and weakens.

GFS MODEL Thursday afternoon: Showers and t-storms are possible as low pressure crosses the Great Lakes region.

Temperatures on Thursday will be similar to today with afternoon highs around 80°.

That low pressure system to the north should be far enough to keep a mostly dry day in the Valley for Friday. However, with a pool of colder air aloft, a spotty shower can’t be ruled out at some point through the day. That, plus the fact that we’ll be between systems on Friday. Temperatures will back off to the mid-70s for the afternoon high.

A deeper low pressure system will travel into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. This system will push a decent amount of southern moisture into east-central Ohio raising the odds for another round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.

GFS MODEL Saturday evening

A cold pool aloft raises the prospects for hail in any stronger storms that might develop. Gusty wind could be another factor we might need to stay aware of with this one. This system can also tap into a good amount of moisture so rain amounts will be a bit higher.

A frontal boundary associated with this system should clear east of the region on Sunday morning. While there can be an early morning shower, our weather should improve during the afternoon Sunday. That persistent cold pool overhead will keep a low-level threat for spotty showers going through Monday. At the very least, we will likely see more clouds than sun.

The warmest day of the weekend will be Saturday with daytime highs in the mid-70s. Sunday will be the cooler day with highs about ten degrees cooler.

The models struggle to come up with an agreeable solution for early next week. For now, we will need to keep at least a low chance for showers in the forecast through Monday and Tuesday. Expect to see a changing forecast as we head into the early week.

Generally speaking, it looks like we’ll be seeing the end of our taste of June weather. Cooler temperatures will become the norm but daytime highs will remain slightly above average.


Thanks for reading the Wednesday edition of the Valley’s only detailed weather forecast devoted exclusively to our local area. Enjoy our warm weather and please be safe out there.



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