Severe Weather Outlook for Monday, 5/24/2021

Posted Monday, May 24, 2021

A stalled front in the vicinity will keep a threat for isolated showers during the morning. The potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase during the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in east-central Ohio today but some storms will be capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall. Cloud cover will limit the potential for strong thunderstorms.

The nearly stationary front will shift north as a warm front on Tuesday. A layer of warm air aloft will develop a strong cap in the upper levels that will inhibit shower and thunderstorm development. It will be a warm day in the Valley with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Any showers and/or thunderstorms will be limited to northwest Ohio.

A strong cold front moving through Ohio will raise the prospects for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Pockets of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be possible during the morning. It remains unclear how this morning precipitation will affect instability as the front approaches from the east during the afternoon.

Cloud cover will likely be the main factor governing afternoon potential for instability. Less cloudiness can allow for more heating which may increase instability during the afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms containing severe wind gusts will be possible.

Current Severe Threat Level: LOW (1 on a scale of 1-5)

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High pressure will return dry and sunny weather to the region on Thursday. An upper-level trough of low pressure will likely bring showers to the area on Friday. A lack of instability will limit the potential for thunder. Showers should exit the area on Saturday with high pressure returning fair weather to the region on Sunday. Severe weather is not anticipated throughout the period.

Local details (timing, threats, etc.) regarding Wednesday’s severe weather will come more into focus tomorrow. An upgrade to Slight Risk (level 2 on a scale of 1-5) for all or parts of eastern Ohio is likely.

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