Posted Thursday PM, June 17, 2021
Not much has changed regarding tomorrow’s severe weather threat. At 9:30 PM Thursday evening, a cluster of thunderstorms upstream in Minnesota and Wisconsin is just getting underway.
This area of showers and storms will weaken overnight as they travel east into NW Ohio Friday morning. It will continue to weaken as it makes its way into central and eastern Ohio through the morning. This system may bring showers and (maybe) some thunder to our area between 10 AM and noon. These will not be severe but they will play a role with storms that will likely develop late in the day.
We will see a break Friday afternoon behind this first round. We will notice an increase in humidity as warm moist air moves in. It will feel muggier at 2 pm than it was in the morning. Instability will increase during the rest of the afternoon.
Our chances for showers and storms will increase once again during the late afternoon and early evening. Upper-level winds will be cooking along at a decent clip and this, along with moisture and instability, will provide the ingredients necessary for thunderstorm development.
Some of the late-day storms can grow tall enough to tap into those elevated upper-level winds. That’s where our threat for damaging wind gusts will come from. Storms will also be capable of producing large hail. Isolated tornadoes are also possible if any of these storms can spin up.
With all of this in mind, the Storm prediction Center has our area highlighted for an Enhanced Risk (Level3 on a scale of 1-5) for severe thunderstorms Friday evening.
I will also add a potential for heavy rainfall and a potential for flash flooding in the stronger storms. This is especially a concern Friday night and Saturday.
As it looks this evening, the main severe threat in our area looks to be highest from about 6/7 PM Friday evening through 12/1 AM Saturday morning. It is possible for thunderstorms, maybe even strong storms, to continue after 1 AM but the 6 pm to 1 AM timeframe looks to be the time we see the highest risk for severe storms.
Those that read my weather forecasts and blogs know I don’t hype storms. But I will say that we do not see an Enhanced Risk from the SPC very often. When we do have this kind of severe risk it gets my attention. I’m not trying to hype anything, I’m just letting you know what I see and read from resources that I trust. This is one of those times we need to pay attention and have a plan.
Again, the main threat tomorrow evening will come from strong wind gusts. Large hail is secondary. The tornado threat is less of a threat but it’s still high enough that it’s important to mention.
Because of the wind threat, power outages and downed trees and power lines are a possibility. (Charge your devices.) You also may want to secure your trash cans and outdoor items you want to keep.
I’ll post another update in the morning. There may be some changes but I do not think those changes will lessen the potential for severe storms locally. Be prepared, not scared.