Will we have Fall this year or are we going straight into Winter?

Posted Friday, October 8, 2021

There’s no doubt it has been an unusually warm start to autumn here in the Valley. Many of us are wondering if we’ll even have an autumn season and just go straight into winter. (I very much doubt that.) It does seem that summer has been reluctant to give it up, though. And many folks are wondering if we’ll ever see those wonderful cooler and less humid days of fall.

Generally speaking, our daytime high temperatures have been running 10° or so above normal for the season so far. Our averages during the first part of October should be around 68° for the daytime high with nighttime lows around 46°. No record highs have been broken but our daytime temperatures have topped 80° more than a few times so far this year.

These warmer temperatures have brought impacts to fall foliage as well. We’re usually seeing much more color and leaf drop by now. Generally, the seasonal fall color and leaf drop peaks as we approach the end of October. The warm temperatures are likely at least partially responsible for the delay in fall color.

Autumn is also a period where we see the humidity of summer drops off. Normally we’re into cool crisp mornings by now. That hasn’t been the case this year. Not only do we have summertime warm temperatures but those dew points have remained in the mid to upper-60s as well making for some unusually muggy days.

The weekend will bring some rain mainly late in the day Saturday and Saturday night. Temperatures will, however, remain warm and humid.

At this point, many folks in the Valley are looking forward to temperatures and humidity more in tune with the season.

That’s a question I’ve heard asked a lot lately. Except for a smattering of leaf color here and there and the amount of daylight getting noticeably shorter, there are few signs that summer is on the way out.

It is likely that our warm and humid weather pattern will continue through much of next week. But, as we look out past the standard 7-day forecast we start to see a hint that temperatures may trend cooler by next weekend.

A potent cold front is likely to move through Ohio late next week and it will bring the potential to knock temperatures back to around normal. The temperature trend shown here is certainly not cold by any stretch of the imagination. It does indicate, however, that temperatures more in line with what we would normally expect to see are within sight. And, those cooler temperatures are likely to persist.

Along with the cooler temperatures, we’ll also see those elevated dew points fall back to comfortable levels behind that front. We’ll finally get our cool crisp fall mornings. Not too cool for any frost yet, though. (On average, our first frost of the season occurs around mid-to-late October.)

Another thing I hear is that we’ll pay for this warmth come winter. Sadly, temperatures during early fall have little implication on our temperatures in December or January. NOAA says that we can look forward to an El Nino this winter so all bets are off.

So, if you’ve been wondering where fall went, hang in there a bit longer. Fall has been delayed this year but it will eventually get here.



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