Weekend Snow Potential?

Posted Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Social media sites were abuzz yesterday and again today on the potential of a winter storm system moving through the southern US this weekend. The storm, should it develop and track as many of the computer models say, could bring significant snow and ice to parts of the country that seldom see wintry precipitation during the winter. There is a ton of chatter and speculation regarding the storm on the facebag and the tweeter. And there’s no shortage of talking heads on the cable weather channels either.

While this has the potential to bring big winter impacts to areas in the South, the question many in our area have is will the storm bring impacts to our area. The best (and most accurate) answer at this point is “maybe”.

Winter storms are notoriously difficult to forecast accurately much more than 48 hours out. This one is 4 DAYS out. The main piece of energy that may become the storm is just today entering the Pacific Northwest. It’s about 3,000 miles away from our area. Ultimately, the track of the system will be a major factor in precipitation types and amounts we might see here in east-central Ohio.

So, let’s talk about what we do know and what we don’t know:

  • There will likely be an impactful winter storm centered in the southern and eastern US over the weekend and into early next week.

That’s it. That’s what we know for certain as of today.

What we do not know is the exact track of the storm. It could wabble north or it could take a more southerly track. It could hug the East Coast or track further out to sea. The track of the storm (as well as a few other factors) is important to know before we start talking about any impacts we might see in eastern and central Ohio over the weekend. The truth is we just don’t know at this point.

COULD the storm bring snow or ice or mixed precipitation to east-central Ohio? Yes. But it can just as easily track far enough south and east to NOT bring snow here. All we can do at this point is monitor the model trends over the next few days. Things will settle down over time and we will eventually get a good idea of what the storm might do.

Until then just know that wintry weather including accumulating snow is POSSIBLE during the Sunday and Monday timeframe. Until then, keep up with local weather forecasts from reliable sources. Those free weather apps aren’t going to help you much.

I will tell you that I usually don’t strive to be the first when it comes to snow amount forecasts just to get some numbers out there. I don’t have a rating book to worry about and I don’t care about getting eyeballs to look at my stuff. And, I don’t make money from doing this.

Be safe out there.

11 thoughts on “Weekend Snow Potential?”

  1. As always, Joe, you got your eyes on the science, not the hype/ratings. I appreciate your work! Thank you!

  2. Pretty sure I speak for more than myself. I find YOUR forecast way more accurate than the talking heads for our area. I always go to page when I want the weather. Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge with us.

  3. I think I speak for many to say that we appreciate your honest forecasts that may or may not happen. Keep up the good work!

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