Thursday Morning Winter Storm Update

Posted Thursday AM, February 3, 2022

Things are playing out pretty much on schedule. Folks across the area are starting out with a coating of ice this morning. Surface temperatures are generally near 30°, give or take. Overhead at around 4k/5k feet temperatures are around 40° with precipitation. This setup is expected to last through much of today.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for all of the region. The Warning is not for snow… but for ice. While we will see some snow from the storm, the bulk of snow in our area will fall at the tail-end of the storm.

NWS Probability for 1/4″ or more of freezing rain

We’re currently seeing a break in freezing rain. Occasional breaks can be expected through the rest of the daytime hours. Generally, expect freezing rain and/or sleet to be the main weather concern in our area today. Travel conditions will continue to deteriorate across the area. Secondary roads and elevated surfaces will be especially vulnerable to icing.

Hi-Res FutureCast Radar (simulated) at 3:00 PM Thursday.

Later today toward evening the air in that upper-level will cool to freezing and we’ll start to see freezing rain and sleet change over to snow from northwest to southeast. Snow showers – possibly moderate to heavy at times – will continue for much of the night tonight.

Hi-Res FutureCast Radar 7PM Thursday

Temperatures tonight will drop to the upper teens. Any wet and slushy areas on the roads will freeze.

New data this morning shows a slower trend as things wind down on Friday. Snow showers are likely to continue a little later on Friday as this thing pulls away. Because of this new slower trend, we will probably see a bit more snow than previously thought – maybe by an inch. I’ve not adjusted my forecast yet but if this later trend continues I’ll likely tack on an inch of snow with my mid-morning update. [EDIT: I did bump snow amounts up by an inch.]

HRRR FutureCast Radar 7AM Friday

The bottom line is this storm and its impacts will be with us for quite a while yet – today through midday Friday. It’s going to be messy today and tomorrow. Travel will be challenging at best. Snow on top of the ice will be a concern tonight and Friday morning.

I’ll post updates as needed. You’ll find them here first. You can also follow along with me on Twitter (@tuscwx).

Ice is not your friend. Be safe out there.

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