11:30 AM Friday 06/28/2024
We’ll have no weather issues in east-central Ohio today. Temperatures across the Valley will be warmer than yesterday under abundant sunshine. Humidity won’t be an issue either with dewpoints in the mid-50s across our area this afternoon.
Saturday will bring a much different day, however. Dewpoints will start to come up overnight tonight as low pressure advances into the Great Lakes region. This will lift a warm front across eastern Ohio and setup another warm, humid, and unstable day for Saturday across the east-central Ohio region.
Chances favor that it probably won’t rain all day, but showers and thunderstorms will threaten any location at any time mainly in two main waves – the first wave in the morning and a second wave in the mid to late afternoon. The mid to late afternoon period will also bring a potential of severe thunderstorms to the area. The late afternoon severe weather potential will hinge on whether the atmosphere can destabilize enough after the morning session of showers/storms and the amount of cloud cover. Clearing skies and sunshine would not be a good thing to see during the late morning and early afternoon.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has the bulk of Ohio pegged in the Level 2 risk category for severe thunderstorms on Saturday. This includes the east-central Ohio region mainly during the mid afternoon and early evening period. There are three main concerns in our area with Saturday’s severe hazards:
(1) Damaging Wind Gusts
(2) Torrential Downpours
(3) Isolated Tornadoes
(4) Hail
I do want to mention that today’s analysis does suggest that instability and wind shear (the change of wind direction with altitude) are projected to be in such a condition that would support quick spin-up tornadoes. That threat remains low but is notably higher than what we normally see in our area. That doesn’t mean tornadoes will develop. It just means that there is a slightly higher chance that they could develop.
As a reminder, though, all of this will depend on how much clearing and sunshine we can muster earlier in the day after any morning activity. Timing of an approaching cold front will be a factor as well. The quicker the front arrives, the less time we’ll have for the atmosphere to reload before the front arrives.
AFTER SATURDAY’S STORMS
A cold front will sweep through the region Saturday night, ending the severe threat. Showers and storms will push out of the area and high pressure will return dry and pleasant weather to the Valley on Sunday. Expect cooler temperatures and lower humidity on Sunday. Fair weather should dominate our weather pattern through the first half of next week.
