A potent severe weather event is setting up for Tuesday of this week in our area that bears watching.
Temperatures will peak this week on Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will slide southeast across Ohio Tuesday evening. While isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon hours, numerous thunderstorms are more likely to develop later in the day as the cold front moves through.
As of today (Sunday, 04/27), the NWS Storm Prediction Center has nearly all of the east-central Ohio region in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 on a scale of 1-5) of severe thunderstorms. The main threat comes from the potential of damaging wind gusts. A lesser risk exists for tornadoes and large hail.
An Enhanced Risk is somewhat unusual in our area, and we normally see this level a few times each year. It’s even more unusual to see this kind of concern in the Day 3 Outlook, so it’s something we need to be concerned about.
As one would suspect, there are plenty of model variations regarding timing and intensity this far out. These will get fine-tuned with the Day 2 and Day 1 SPC outlooks. Right now, it’s just important to be aware of the potential. The majority of our computer models suggest plenty of instability and sufficient moisture will be available for storms to tap into.
Look for more details here by Monday afternoon.
