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A not so nice weekend; Wind and rain Saturday; Cold wind and snow showers on Sunday

We’re starting out gray and dry this morning with a deck of stratocumulus¬† overhead but these will gradually erode and be replaced by mid and high level clouds moving in this afternoon ahead of our next warm front. Sill, there may be a brief period of just enough clearing that would allow for some occasional peaks of sunshine this afternoon.

Despite today’s clouds, weak high pressure will keep us dry through the day. Temperatures this afternoon will be just a tad below average. Most neighborhoods will get to the upper 40s for the high.

Clouds will continue to thicken up this evening and tonight ahead of strengthening low pressure out of the Plains. A warm front will track across east-central Ohio tonight ahead of the storm system with rain showers overspreading the region tonight and Saturday morning.

While temperatures on Saturday will warm to the upper 50s and maybe 60 degrees in our southern communities, it will be a cloudy, rainy and windy day. Plans for Saturday might include catching up with Netflix or watching college football. It will not be a nice day outdoors.

The associated cold front will cross the region sometime in the afternoon or early evening. Strong gusty winds will be overhead and some of these winds will mix down to the surface and some gusts may reach 25-30 mph or so.

Although no severe storms are expected, a rumble or two of thunder can’t be ruled out ahead and along the front.

Computer modeling over the past several weeks has not done well with rain totals and they’ve generally over estimated the amount of rain. That being said, rain tonight through Saturday could amount to three-quarters to an inch. I think a half to three-quarters is a given, but I can’t discount an inch or so in some spots.

Colder air will rush in behind the front Saturday night and those gusty winds aloft will mix down to the surface. We can expect increasing winds overnight with gusts in the 30-40 mph range.

Sunday will not be much better. It will truly feel like a January day. The colder air in place behind the front snow showers will replace the rain. Winds will be gusty still especially during the morning, so yea, wind-driven snow showers too.

We should see a break in the snow during the late morning/early afternoon time frame before a second wave rotates through east-central Ohio mid afternoon and evening. This will bring another round of scattered snow showers to the Valley.

Snow shower chances and the gusty winds will begin to diminish Sunday night as high pressure starts to build in overhead.

Temperatures on Sunday will be pretty much flat-lined in the mid 30s and won’t vary much more than a degree or two through the day. It will just be a cold, blustery day.

The vast majority of snow on Sunday will be lake effect, so snow here in the Tuscarawas Valley area will be limited. It will still snow, we just won’t see much in the way of accumulating snow here. Snow will have more of an impact in the snow belt counties in northeastern Ohio and western PA.

To recap for folks who like the short version…

High pressure will rule our weather pattern through the first half of next week. As such, we can expect cool but generally sunny conditions Monday and Tuesday. We will try to reach the low 40s on Monday. Tuesday looks to be a little warmer with upper 40s.

Things start to get a little fuzzy mid week with the timing of a disturbance due on Wednesday. For now, I’ll go with increasing clouds but keep it dry. Thanksgiving looks uneventful but cool with a mix of sun and clouds. There are no signals for any high impact storm systems in the mid range that would affect LOCAL travel over the Thanksgiving weekend.

Mid range temperature ensembles do signal a colder temperature pattern through the Thanksgiving holiday period. I do think that these are a bit colder than I’ve seen in previous runs.

However, I can’t completely discount the cold trend, but I think these a just a little too cold by a couple of degrees.

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