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Morning rain exits east; Dry but cool intermittent sun on Tuesday

The nice soaking rain overnight will gradually come to an end this morning as a low just south of Pittsburgh this morning dissipates. High pressure will begin to build overhead and bring us some drier air for this afternoon. Clouds will win the day, however and any clearing will come late in the day.

Temperatures this afternoon will remain below normal again today and most Tuscarawas Valley neighborhoods will only get to the low 40s.

We’ll remain dry tonight as that high continues to build and that will keep the trend toward lessening clouds as we go through the night. It will be a chilly night tonight with most seeing lows near 30 degrees or so by sunrise.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
Clouds will thin through the day on Tuesday bringing intervals of sun in the morning and as clouds continue to thin, additional sun in the afternoon. Despite the sun, temperatures will still find it tough to get much better than the mid 40s.

The high pressure system that will bring dry weather on Tuesday will shift east on Wednesday allowing low pressure and a cold front to move into the Great Lakes. We should start out dry Wednesday but chances for rain showers will gradually increase through the day. Rain will become likely in the afternoon.

We should also see a little warming ahead of the cold front as warmer air moves in from the south. Temperatures around the Valley will warm to 50-ish. The warmth won’t stick around as cooler air behind the front will return temperatures to the mid 40s on Thursday.

Another brief dry period will return to the Valley on Thursday although this won’t be a real strong high. It will be enough to bring intervals of sunshine.



WEEKEND WEATHER – INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST
There are some differences with timing in the modeling for a weekend weather system but all models are coming into agreement for a major storm system to cross the Great Lakes region during the period. It will have impacts on our weather here in the Valley.

Exact details are sketchy yet, but as we get deeper into the week, those details will come into better focus. Today I just want to give folks a heads up with a general early idea of what we can expect. Again, timing will play a big role especially in regards to precipitation type.

Most of Friday looks dry and uneventful. A strengthening storm system will be approaching from the west late in the day Friday. as it moves into the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday the pressure will deepen and it will become a formidable storm for the lakes.

Back here in the Valley. winds will begin to pick up Friday night and Saturday looks to be a very windy day.

Here is where model differences begin to play a role. The GFS (shown here) brings a strong cold front through Saturday morning. The European hangs the cold front further west and brings it through later in the afternoon.

Timing of the cold front crossing will impact precipitation type. It will start out as rain Saturday and depending on when the colder air takes over, a changeover to snow will occur at some point.

Regardless of frontal timing, Saturday will be a very windy day with gusts perhaps in the 30 – 40 mph range.

Colder air rushes in behind the front and rain will change over to snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. Sunday won’t be pretty, either. We’ll have gusty winds and snow showers most of the day.

CAVEAT – IMPORTANT
(*) This is NOT the final word on this storm system. There will be changes in the weekend forecast as the models get a better handle on timing of the low and its cold front. But, basically the weekend is going to be windy with rain on Saturday changing over to cold windy snow showers Saturday night and Sunday.

NEXT WEEK & THANKSGIVING
Model temperature ensembles show a definite cold look to our weather behind the weekend storm system. I would plan on a chilly Thanksgiving.

As for precipitation, it’s a little too soon to make any calls yet. But, the trend over the last week to ten days has steadily shown a cold look to our temperatures as we head late into the month.

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