The upper-level low-pressure system that has pestered us with occasional showers and thunderstorms has finally shifted east and out of our way. Today will be a nice summery day in east-central Ohio with high pressure over the southeast providing filtered sunshine. Clouds will gradually increase this afternoon in advance of our next storm system moving in out of the Plains.
Today’s hazy sky will come partly from thin high clouds, but some of that haze will also come from smoke from those wildfires out west. The smoke is mostly in the upper atmosphere so it won’t be a bother for us down on the surface.
As this next system approaches, it will lift a warm front across the region. The timing of the front has slowed a bit from previous model runs and probably won’t cross until tonight. But the results will be the same. Plenty of Gulf moisture will stream in and our odds for showers and storms will trend upward.
Temperatures today will be quite warm and muggy, adding to the summery feel. Afternoon highs will climb to the upper 80s in most locations.
Showers and thunderstorms will be likely Thursday as an upper-level disturbance rides along the frontal boundary. The atmosphere will be pretty well worked over from previous showers and storms and cloud cover so the severe thunderstorm threat will be marginal at best.
The only factor that may increase our severe risk is sunshine. Pockets of clearing would push instability upward and our risk for stronger thunderstorms would increase. There is also an abundance of moisture with this system and heavy rainfall will be possible too.
With the amount of cloud cover and those showers and storms around, temperatures Thursday will be cooler than today – 80 to 82 degrees at best. With that moist Gulf air in place, it will still be quite muggy, though.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday night as the low travels across the Great Lakes region. Our rain chances will taper off Friday morning as an area of drier air wraps in behind the low. However, an associated cold front will approach by Friday afternoon and showers and thunderstorm chances will ramp back up. Widespread showers and storms will again be likely into Friday evening.
The cold front will slowly creep along and take its good old time crossing sometime Friday night. Rain Thursday and Friday will probably affect just about everyone but it will vary – as all summertime precipitation does. Generally speaking, we can expect a half to three-quarters of an inch across our area.
Drier air will move in behind the front Saturday morning but the latest modeling suggests another disturbance sliding through the region. We’ll have to keep a low chance for a scattered/isolated shower in the forecast on Saturday as this little bump moves through.
Sunday will bring a return to sunny and dry conditions as high pressure builds overhead. High pressure should stick around through Monday. Another storm system out of the Plains brings showers and storms back to our area Monday night into Tuesday.