A large area of high pressure will continue to build across the eastern United States through mid-week. A cold front will slowly move southeast into the region Thursday, becoming stationary between the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the end of the week.
Labor Day will be a hot one across the Tuscarawas Valley area. High pressure will keep the sunshine going strong and a layer of warm air aloft will keep chances for thunderstorms this afternoon low.
The only fly in the ointment is a weak boundary that will sink into lower Lake Erie today. Outflow from this disturbance may spark a few thunderstorms over northeast Ohio but it’s doubtful anything of consequence would sink this far south. Still, I’ve kept a slight chance for an afternoon shower or storm in the forecast for today – just in case.
Any activity today will quickly wane after sunset and the loss of daytime heating. Skies should remain clear tonight but temperatures will remain warm and muggy.
Tuesday will bring more of the same, but temperatures will warm a degree or two more. Most neighborhoods will see low 90s today and Tuesday.
With dew points in the 70s, heat indices will probably remain just below the criteria for heat advisories (100-degrees). So, take precautions while outdoors today through Wednesday.
Wednesday will bring another hot and humid day to the Valley. But, a change in this hot and humid stretch of weather will begin to unfold Wednesday night.
A cold front that has been hung up over Wisconsin and Michigan will finally begin to shift slowly south. Today’s model runs have sped up this system a little which may bring the potential for showers and storms into east-central Ohio by Thursday morning. Still, confidence is not quite high enough to include rain in the forecast until mid-afternoon Thursday. Even then, most activity should be scattered.
The front will take its good old time moving through Ohio. As such, Thursday will likely remain warm and muggy with temperatures in the upper 80s. Relief from the heat and humidity will not arrive until Friday. After the front crosses our area it will stall out just to the south. With the nearby boundary, showers and storms will remain possible Friday.
QUESTIONABLE WEEKEND WEATHER
The weekend brings some uncertainty at this point. The main concern is differences in modeling with regards to the stalled front south of the region. The European model keeps the front south as strong high pressure builds to the north. The GFS brings the front back north on Saturday and develops a low along the front over Lake Erie.
Because of the differences, we will need to keep the threat for showers and storms in the weekend outlook going forward. BUT, changes will be needed going forward as the models get a grip on things. Temperatures over the weekend may be close to average, but if the GFS is correct, warm and humid weather will return. I’m not very confident at all with the weekend forecast this far out and the complete lack of any model agreement.